Aug30

MMA Rankings Hits and Misses for UFC 134

by doug on August 30th, 2011 at 12:20 pm
Posted In: MMA Handicapping
Here’s a look at how accurate the MMA Rankings were for the matchups at UFC 134.

Raphael Assuncao -130 looked like a huge bargain against unranked Johnny Eduardo. Sure there were a few questions about Assuncao’s ability to drop to 135, but he’s been a proven fighter who’s competed well against some of the top FW in MMA.  An easy unanimous decision paid off for anyone who backed Assuncao. Big Hit.

Paulo Thiago -400 certainly deserved to be favored over the relatively unknown David Mitchell, but I’m not got to take any credit/blame on this one.  Mitchell was too much of an unknown and the price was too steep for Thiago.  I guess the rankings were correct in determining the winner, but it wasn’t really a bettable fight. Little Hit.

Rousimar Palhares -240 and Dan Miller +190 were both ranked correctly and the betting line reflected it.  The rankings may have a reflected a small value on Dan Miller, but not an obvious overlay.  Palhares negated any value with his career best performance, show a big improvement in cardio and striking. Little Hit.

Thiago Tavares -215 was a playable fighter against unranked Spencer Fisher. Both guys are well known veteran fighters who are predictable.  The rankings may have indicated a bet and would have been correct, but anyone who’s followed Tavares knows how much of a gamble that would have been. Little Hit.

Luiz Cane -210 looked like a winner until he got KO’d.  I’m not sure Nedkov is any good, but Cane was ranked too highly. Big Miss.

Big Nog +200 was the bet of the night.  We had ranked considerably better than Schaub and the betting odds were way off. Big Winner.

Ross Pearson +240 looked like a great bet according to my rankings, but that was mainly due to a serious oversight of Barboza.  In retrospect it was still probably a good value on Pearson, since Barboza was somewhat unproven. Barboza should have been ranked slightly higher than Njokuani since he beat him in a close fight, but that still would have made Pearson the pick.  However you look at it its a loss. Big Miss.

Shogun -225 was ranked considerable higher than Forrest Griffin and it proved to be a great value as this was the best favorite of the night to bet on. Big Winner.

Yushin Okami +375 looked like a decent value against Silva, until the fight started.  The rankings were correct, but the valuation was way off. Little Miss.
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Feb23

MFC 28

by doug on February 23rd, 2011 at 2:31 pm
Posted In: MMA Handicapping

MFC 28 is on HDNet Friday night.  I’ve followed bet on MFC for several years with pretty good success, so I always look forward to their shows.  MFC has a pretty good relationship with UFC, so you will see plenty of recent dropouts showing up in MFC events.  The key to handicapping MFC bouts is to know the organization inside-out…

  • They fight in boxing ring
  • Pulling guard is frowned upon and might get you cut from the organization
  • Local fighters may get some special love from the judges
  • UFC invaders are often sticking their head in a hornet’s nest

Here’s a quick look and a few thoughts on what to expect before the betting lines are released

Ryan Jimmo (13-1) vs. Dwayne Lewis (13-6): Bookmaker’s will probably make Jimmo a decent favorite in this fight based on his record and a win over Newton, who beat Lewis.  These guys are nearly the same size, style, talent, age, etc…  and I think it will be a very close fight that ends in a decision.  Both guys are powerful plodders who are open to a well placed counter. Ok, Jimmo deserves to be favored but I’d be happy to take a shot at Lewis if we see him +200.    Jimmo’s probably worth considering at -130 or better.

Drew Fickett (40-13) vs. Matt Veach (15-2):  I thought Fickett was just cashing checks, he went 0 for 2009 with 5 straight losses.  But then he turns it all around and finishes 2010 4 -0, go figure.  Veach is undefeated outside the UFC and feel like Joe Silva still has his phone number tucked away.  I suspect a fairly close betting line based on Fickett’s reputation, but we’ll see.  Veach as a underdog is the ONLY the thing I’m interested in, +150 or better.

Richie Whitson (10-1) vs. Curtis Demarce (10-7): Don’t go crazy on this fight, there are a ton of questions about both fighters.  Whitson is going to be listed as a big favorite, but he’s not really proven himself worthy of such status.  So, is Demarce worth playing as a big dog? Probably not,  his offense is very limited and he’s been fighting scrubs.  Whitson should control the standup and I don’t see anything in Demarce’s game to worry him, so if you see Whitson around -150 take it.  If not, pass.

Tyrone Glover (5-0) vs. Robert Washington (9-1): No clue on this one.  Glover has one fight in the last 6 years, Washington 6 fights in 1 year.  Problem is… Washington’s competition has been terrible.

Thomas Denny (27-18) vs. Sheldon Westcott (4-1): Looks like an apparent mismatch, but you really have to consider where has Denny been and what’s he been doing?  Wescott could be tempting with a big fat price to go along with some sexy weigh-in photos.

Emanuel Newton (13-6-1) vs. Rodney Wallace (10-3): Looks like an evenly matched bout between two physical fighter who’ve been through some tough times recently.  I’m looking to jump on Wallace as an underdog, anything +110 or better.  Newton’s settled into a win-some/lose-some MFC role, while Wallace should be improved/rejuvenated off his first post UFC win.

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Feb21

MMA Betting Notes – Feb 21

by doug on February 21st, 2011 at 3:54 pm
Posted In: MMA Handicapping

This past weekend we had two events on Friday, Tachi Palace 8 & Strikeforce Challengers 14.

The Bets (posted in our forum) +$400

  • Ulysses Gomez -155 (TP) $250 to win $161 Loss
  • Leopoldo Serao +160 (TP) $250 to win $400 Loss
  • Carlo Prater +180 (SF) $500 to win $900 Win

I made a small change in my money management and Tachi Palace was the first event that I put the plan in action.  The TP card had a few fights that I liked, but nothing really jumped out at me.  Instead of completely passing the event, I split 1 unit (my normal bet amount) evenly among the fights I liked.  Unfortunately, it didn’t work out for me and I lost both bets.  For now, I’ll continue with the strategy and see how it plays out over the next couple months.

Tachi Palace Notes

Fabricio Camoes def. Steve Lopez by KO (Head Kick) at 0:23, R1:  We never learn much from quick finishes like this fight.  Camoes is BJJ guy that obviously has a trick or two in his socks.

Dominique Robinson def. John Gunderson by TKO (Strikes) at 0:41, R3:  Gunderson is a money burner, he’s been given lots of opportunities, but never really put it all together.  I’d look to bet against him in future events if he’s listed as a favorite.  Robinson is starting to look like a good fighter, he’s finally fighting on a consistent basis and it’s paying off.  He’s talented and has a great MMA physique, probably getting a fair share of confidence too.

Edgar Garcia def. Mike Moreno by Submission (Guillotine Choke) at 1:47, R1:  Edgar Garcia looked impressive with a lightning fast guillotine, but the question is… was Moreno any good to begin with?  I pointed out earlier it was a curious matchup, and the result doesn’t really tell us much about either guy.

Ian McCall def. Jussier da Silva by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28), R3:  Missed a good opportunity to bet McCall as a 2-1 underdog.  He’s a tough battler and reinforced that Friday night as he easily won the 2nd and 3rd rounds.  I mistakenly thought da Silva was a pretty good stand-up fighter, but in reality he was simply better than the BJJ guys he was facing in Brazil and Japan.  At this point, I have doubts about his game against quality well rounded guys who can defend submissions.  McCall is most likely set to face Montague next and you’ve got to like his chances, since he hung in against a bigger & better version of Montague when he face Dom Cruz.

Darrell Montague def. Ulysses Gomez by Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 50-45), R5:  Gomez never got into his game and allowed Montague to pick him apart for 5 rounds.    Gomez is not a bad fighter, he simply had a bad fight.  Small show guys tend to be more inconsistent than what we see in the UFC, so don’t assume Gomez sucks off this performance.  Montague was a much better standup fighter than I thought and we’ll see how good he is when he defends his title against McCall.  I give McCall a decent edge based on size, experience and toughness.

David Loiseau def. Leopoldo Serao by TKO (Doctor’s stoppage due to elbows) at 1:12, R5:  ghhhh. Tough fight to watch.  Both guys made so many mistakes.  Serao settled for fighting off his back when he could have dominated this fight by outworking Loiseau and grinding him down.  Loiseau continually put himself into dangerous situations for no reason.  I’m looking for opportunities to beat both these guys in the future.

Strikeforce Challengers Notes

David Douglas defeated Nick Gonzalez via technical submission (rear-naked choke) at 1:05 of round 1:  Douglas is a physically gifted beast, but Gonzalez wasn’t much of a test.  Look for Douglas to roll through lower level guys.

Ryan Larson defeated Eric Apple via submission (triangle choke) at 3:14 of round 2:  Ryan Larson was probably the most impressive fighter on the card, especially considering he’d never really beaten anyone.  Apple may not be the greatest fighter, but he’s no weakling either.  Larson pretty much controlled all aspects and showed off some nice technical skills too.   I’d put him in the top 4-5 Strikeforce Welters right now.

Ryan Couture defeated Lee Higgins via submission (rear-naked choke) at 4:41 of round 3:  Nice win for Couture, but he’s still got a lot of maturing to do physically.  His stand-up is a long way from good and if they put him in against a polished striker he’ll get beat.  I’d imagine they step him up the ladder gradually and he’ll lose occasionally as he progresses.  The trick to making any money off him will be to bet against him during the losses, cause his name will jack up the prices.

Carlo Prater defeated Bryan Travers via technical submission (anaconda choke) at 0:38 of round 1:   Travers was hyped too much.  Say what you want about Prater, he’s capable of choking out anybody if you give him easy opening.

Pat Healy defeated Lyle Beerbohm via unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28):  I think we confirmed both guys have big gas tanks.  Healy is always a live underdog, because he can pretty much compete against any style and he’s tough as shit.  But I’d stick to playing him as a dog, for the same reason, he fights his opponent’s fight.  I think we saw Beerbohm’s talent ceiling, I can’t imagine him fighting any better unless he improves his striking.

Tachi Palace 8 play-by-play

Strikeforce Challengers 14 play-by-play

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Feb17

Tachi Palace Fights 8

by doug on February 17th, 2011 at 12:46 pm
Posted In: MMA Handicapping

Ulysses GomezTachi Palace puts on some of the best small show events in MMA.  For MMA bettors it pays to keep up with the smaller shows, because thats where young talented fighters usually first hit the scene.  All odds are from 5Dimes (best MMA betting site).

Small shows around the country have their own hierarchy, some better than others for one reason or another.  You can argue that the West Coast is best or possibly the Midwest but, Tachi Palace ranks up near the top in any discussion. When you see a successful record coming out of their shows… pay attention.  Tomorrow we get a chance to wager on the fights and MMA Junkie will be streaming it live.

I’ll admit I’m no expert on all these guys and the info is scarce for a couple of them.  I’d suggest checking out some of the local forums and blogs to learn more about who they are and what they’ve done. If you’re considering a bet or two, check out the weigh-in to make sure your fighter has all fingers and toes. Here’s a quick rundown of the fights.

Leopoldo Serao vs. David Loiseau – Loiseau is a well known fighter who’s got a decent record.  He’s always put up wins against lesser opponents, but never gets over the hump to beat a quality fighter.  You can say the same about Serao, except nobody has knows about him.  Loiseau wants to be flashy and end it with an exciting KO, while Serao would prefer to grind out a boring UD.  This should be an even fight and whoever “fights his fight” will win it.  Loiseau’s name is the only difference, which gives us a little value on Serao. I like the price on the Brazilian and think he’s more likely to get into his game-plan of frustrating Loiseau.

Ulysses Gomez vs. Darrell Montague – Sometimes all you have is fightfinder when handicapping these shows and that’s what I’m dealing with on this one.  At first glance they seem almost identical, even posting wins over several of the same guys and both losing a bout against a superior opponent.  But one thing sticks out and I think its significant,  Gomez’ win over Reddinger last year in Bellator’s BW tourney. It says two things…

  1. Bellator chose Gomez for a reason, he’s got talent.
  2. Gomez posted a win against a quality fighter, showing what he’s capable of.

I’m trusting my gut on this one and it says Gomez -155 is and easy winner.

Jussier da Silva vs. Ian McCall - Wow, tough fight to call.  I’m a little surprised McCall is the underdog, but I’m not ready to bet the house on him.  McCall is a tough dude and his only losses were to Dom Cruz and Valencia in the WEC, where he was fighting bigger opponents.  I’m usually very skeptical of impressive records built in Japan & Brazil, but da Silva looks like a very polished stand-up fighter in addition to his ground game.  I’ll pass.  Jussier da Silva recent fight

Edgar Garcia vs. Mike Moreno – Garcia -260 is a risky bet, IMO.  Moreno seems to be in over his head against former UFCer Garcia, but I’m not so sure.  Tachi’s matchmaker is no fool, so there’s a reason for Moreno to be in this fight despite a so-so record and a no fights in the last 2 years.   I’ll admit it makes no sense, but neither does Garcia’s last win over an opponent with no pro fights.  Something is fishy.

John Gunderson vs. Dominique Robinson – Gunderson is similar to a couple of guys at the top of the card, wins against easy opponents – losses against good opponents.  So… what is Robinson?  For now, it looks like he’s fodder for Gunderson.  Gunderson loses WAY too often to play as such a big favorite and it wouldn’t shock me to see Robinson pull off an upset.  He’s got some ability and he’s starting to fight consistently against some decent opponents.  I’d rather take a stab at Robinson than lay a big number with Guns.

Fabricio Camoes vs. Steve Lopez – Seems like a toss up to me.

Tachi Palace 8 betting picks (best on top)…

  • Ulysses Gomez -155
  • Leopoldo Serao +160
  • Jussier da Silva -240
  • Steve Lopez +115
  • Dominique Robinson +250
  • Edgar Garcia -260
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Feb16

Henderson vs Feijao Promo Poster

by doug on February 16th, 2011 at 4:00 pm
Posted In: Strikeforce

Now the event has a poster and I immediately start thinking about the similarities between this fight and the Fedor/Silva bout.  Cavalcante +170 is not nearly the underdog Bigfoot was and he’s IS the Strikeforce Champ, but most fans assume this is an easy win for Hendo.

  • Henderson and Fedor are both old experienced legendary fighters who suffered surprising recent losses, Werdum and Shields.
  • Feijao and Bigfoot have followed nearly the same career path, staying active,  beating solid fighters, and taking an occasional odd loss.
  • Feijao can make a name for himself  just like Silva did, possibly retiring a legend.

I usually favor on the side of youth and this fight is no exception.  Looking back…  maybe Fedor’s loss to Werdum was an ominous sign of what was about to happen.  If that’s the case, then you’d have to consider Hendo’s loss to Shields much the same.  After the loss, MMA experts were quick to write about how old Hendo looked and maybe his time was up.  Well,  he hasn’t gotten any younger and he’s facing a guy who’s on top of his game and full of confidence.

This fight is the classic situation of when to bet on a young up-n-comer going against a popular, aging star.  You’re getting a great price +170 and the better fighter (today’s version).

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