UFC
88 Analysis: Dan Henderson vs Rousimar Palhares
by Franky Redzepi
Dan Henderson vs
Rousimar Palhares:
 Dan Henderson (-240)
has decided to stick around in the Middleweight Division after a disappointing
loss to the 185 lb king Anderson Silva. The former PRIDE title holder
will face off against Brazilian prospect Rousimar Palhares. Palhares
showed us just how slick his submission skills were when he arm-barred
Ivan Salaverry in his UFC debut at UFC 84. Rousimar Palhares (+190)
has legit submission skills, and he doesn't just submit people, the
things
he
did to people
at the Fury-FC tournament had the intention of violence behind them.
If Rousimar gets a submission he will not hesitate to crank it as
far and hard as he can. That's all we've really seen from Palhares
though, he's a very good submission guy. We haven't seen too much of
his striking, and he seemed to have pretty good wrestling. His wrestling
won't be as good as Dan's though, and it seems that if Rousimar wants
to win, he'll have to take Henderson down. We already know Dan has
world class wrestling and he hits as hard as anyone out there. This
is a
big step up for Palhares, does he have the skills to take that next
step up?
Dan Henderson isn't an easy guy to submit. I was very surprised
to see what Anderson did to him, because before that fight only the
Nogueira
brothers were able to submit Henderson, and they did it with the same
exact armbar. Rousimar is a short and stocky guy for 185, and Dan might
actually
have a size advantage in this one, something he hasn't had in the UFC
yet. I imagine Dan's gameplan will be to use his wrestling in reverse
to keep the fight standing and look for the knockout. I see no reason
why Henderson shouldn't be able to execute such a gameplan, he has
been able to do it before. Dan should be able to keep Rousimar at bay
and
force
him to shoot from the outside, not many guys can land a takedown from
the outside against Dan. If Henderson can keep Palhares at bay long
enough, it would only be a matter of time until he finds his range
with that
legendary right hand. Henderson could even throw in some takedowns
here and there to make Rousimar think, that right hand lands when you're
thinking too much. Palhares has much more to worry about in this fight
than Dan does. Henderson just needs to worry about not being put on
his back, I believe he's fine on top. Rousimar has to worry about being
taken
down and having right hands blasted on his face, which doesn't bode
well for Rousimar Palhares.
This fight is just a bit too early in Palhare's career to be happening.
Dan can't be happy that he lost out on unifying the titles on two different
occasions, and that just makes it worse for Rousimar, Henderson wants/needs
redemption. Rousimar Palhares might also be too small for this division,
another thing going
against him. You don't find many Middleweights that are that small,
he looks like a 185 pound version of Manvel Gamburyan. I also believe
that Dan staying at 185 will be good for him. His body should respond
better to the cut down since he isn't going back and forth again. I
just don't see how Rousimar can win this fight. I think we'd need to
see a major slip up by Dan for a Rousimar win. Dan should be a big
favorite in this fight, but I won't complain. I don't want to take
anything away from Rousimar, he has legit skills, but I think Dan is
just much better. If you can't take a guy down, you can't submit them.
I think it's only a matter of time before Dan connects with that right
and puts Rousimar out. We'll see the first round controlled by Dan
with some cage tactics, and he'll unleash the right hand in the second.
Dan will knock Rousimar out in this one.
Dan Henderson wins by Second Round KO/TKO.
Karo
Parisyan vs Yoshiyuki Yoshida:
There will
be a huge battle between two Judokas at UFC 88. Karo Parisyan (-260)
will be looking
to rebound with a win after
his loss against Thiago Alves,
and Yoshida (+200) will look to keep his momentum going after he choked
Jon Koppenhaver out cold. Both of these fighters are high level Judo
Players,
so whoever is able to dominate the Judo game will probably win the
fight. Yoshida seemed to show a bit more finishing ability in his fight
against
Koppenhaver, but he was fighting Koppenhaver, who isn't a top guy.
Karo wins a lot of decisions, but it's not like he doesn't try to finish
guys.
This is definitely one of the more competitive fights on the card because
both guys have very similar styles, except Yoshida might  have
a better offensive submission game. Neither guy has amazing striking,
both have
decent striking that gets them by. Both guys like to fight in the clinch,
and that's where I see most of the fight being fought. Whoever wins
that battle will win the fight. When I saw Yoshida destroy Koppenhaver,
I
said this should be the next fight to happen, and I'm glad to see it
was made.
Both fighters have great throws as already mentioned, but Karo is a
bit better with his leg takedowns and I also think his takedown defense
is
a better. Yoshida's best win so far was against Akira Kikuchi in GCM,
where he was getting beat handily early on. Kikuchi was able to take
him down and mount him, and he also got his back at one point. Kikuchi
is a good fighter so that isn't exactly a disgrace, but I think if
Kikuchi can take Yoshida down, then so can Karo. Yoshida was able to
finish that
fight against Kikuchi with some vicious elbows against the cage, but
I don't think he'll be able to unleash those types of elbows against
Karo. Kikuchi is a great fighter with a lot of experience, but he fought
much of his career without elbows. Karo has fought most of his career
in the UFC and other American MMA promotions, and elbows are almost
always used around here. No one has been able to unleash such brutal
elbows
on Karo, so I really don't think Yoshida will be one to beat him down
with elbows. Karo might have the slightly better takedowns overall,
and Kikuchi loves to rush into that body clinch. I think Yoshida might
be
a bit over-matched in the clinch in this fight. Yoshida's best chance
is to hope Karo gasses and to drag the fight on as long as possible.
Karo has always been criticized for being a lazy trainer and depending
too much on his natural talent. I would like to think that after getting
put out by Thiago Alves that he stepped it up, but we all had that
same hope after he lost to Diego. Thiago was the first one to stop
Karo in
the UFC so I think Karo might have taken this one a bit more to the
heart. Yoshida is the real deal, though, so if Karo doesn't train for
him seriously,
he's likely to lose again. I think Karo is a bit more effective on
the outside with his striking, he seems much more calm than Yoshida
in that
position. If it hits the clinch, which I think it will, Karo should
be able to win that battle. I see Karo controlling the fight with takedowns
and ground and pound, and never letting Yoshida into the match. This
is a very good fight on paper, but I think Karo takes home the clear
decision in this one. I won't blame Karo for not finishing this one,
Yoshida is a legit fighter.
Karo Parisyan wins by Unanimous Decision.
Martin Kampmann
vs Nate Marquardt:
This is one of the
more interesting and competitive fights on the card. Kampmann is coming
off a win against a tough Jorge
Rivera by submission,
and that was after a year long layoff due to injury. That makes the
win that much more impressive in my opinion. Marquardt is coming off
a controversial
loss to Thales Leites at UFC 85, the same night Martin defeated Rivera.
I personally believe that Marquardt might have gotten robbed in that
fight. A lot of people have been calling Nate a cheater since then,
but I don't see it that way. Nate definitely did knee Leites in the
head
accidentally, but the elbow wasn't to the back of the head in my opinion. A lot of people were angry that Nate spiked Thales on his head, but
you have to think that Nate probably wouldn't have attempted that if
he didn't
have two points deducted already. It was a good fight, but I believe
Nate proved to be the better fighter that night, even if he technically "lost" the
fight. That's behind us, though, and now we have another good Middleweight
bout to look forward to.
I like both of these guys a lot and Martin proved me wrong last time,
but I still have to lean towards Marquardt. I believe Nate is the more
well rounded fighter, and he will have a size advantage. Nate is better
at every aspect of the game, except for striking maybe, and Nate isn't
too bad on his feet either. The main thing is the size difference,
though, I think that will be the difference in the fight. Martin hasn't
been
underneath a fighter like Nate yet, and I'm not sure if he's prepared
for it. I see Marquardt being able to frustrate Kampmann a lot in this
fight, bringing Martin to parts of the MMA game that he has yet to
experience. Martin has to knock Nate out to win the fight, and I don't
think he has
the punching power to put Nate out. Martin won't outwork Nate, he won't
take him down or land a submission, Martin needs the knockout. On the
other hand, Nate can take him down and control him, possibly land a
submission or some good ground and pound. Nate's skill-set provides
him more ways
to win, but Martin only has that one way to win. Not many people have
been able to beat Nate with straight up punches, it really isn't easy. Martin needs to keep it up on his feet to win. Not only does he have
to keep it on his feet, he needs to land the big punch. Martin might
have that big punch at 170, but not at 185. Martin is a very good striker,
but he just doesn't have the power. McFedries was able to walk right
through Kampmann's punches like nothing. I'm not sure if Nate will be
able to walk through the punches, but he has the chin to take some good
shots. It's only a matter of time until Kampmann gets puts on his back,
and from there it'll beMarquardt's game. Kampmann is a tough guy so I'm
not sure if we'll see a finish in this one, but I think Nate takes home
a pretty clear decision in this one. Hopefully there's no controversy
this time.
Nate Marquardt wins by Unanimous
Decision.
Kurt Pellegrino
vs Thiago Tavares:
 Here we have the
lone Lightweight fight on the card, and it should be a good one.
Both guys are coming off losses,
which could make them
more aggressive because they want it badly, or it might make them
tentative because they're worried about losing again. I have a feeling
this will
be an exciting fight, though. Pellegrino dropped his last fight against
Diaz, he was dominating that fight, but he seemed to gas a bit, and
then he got caught in a triangle. Tavares got knocked out for the
first time in his career in his last fight against Matt Wiman, and
I considered
that a pretty big upset. It seems like Tavares does fight to the
level of his competition, but Wiman looked pretty awesome in that
fight.
There's always more riding on a fight when you come off a loss, neither
of these guys wants to lose again. Two in a row could mean being
cut in this game, and no one wants that. These guys have similar
skill-sets;
good submission guys that have good wrestling, and both are average
strikers, their weak point. Whoever can dominate the ground will
probably win, but it could very well come down to who has the better
striking
too. Should be interesting to see how this one unfolds.
One thing that never seems to fail with Kurt is that he always seems
to gas. When he fought Diaz I said he would win early, but then he
would gas and get caught later on in the fight, and that's exactly
what ended up happening. Same thing when Kurt fought Joe Stevenson.
He looked good early, but faded as the fight went on. Kurt is training
with Kenny Florian and his people for this fight, so hopefully he
fixed that problem. I'd probably give Kurt a slight striking and
wrestling
advantage, but that goes out the window if you can't keep up a high
pace. Tavares fights like he can go all day, not many people can
fight at his pace. Thiago is always doing something in his fights.
If he
gets taken down, he's looking to sweep or land a switch in takedown
attempts. The guy's pace really is unbelievable, and so are his submissions.
Everything Thiago does is smooth and very quick. If this turns into
a grappling match and Kurt isn't in shape, Kurt won't be able to
last. Kurt's hands seem to be getting better fight by fight, but
I don't
see him being able to use them effectively. This will turn into a
grappling match, and the winner will be decided there.
I just can't rely on Kurt, especially in betting terms. He needs
to prove to me that he can fight a high-paced 15 minutes before I
start
picking him to beat top guys. Kurt still hasn't had a win against
a top guy, and I don't think he'll be doing it at UFC 88. Thiago
has
proven he can fight at the highest pace for 15 minutes against top
guys, just watch his fight against Tyson Griffin. I see Thiago setting
that pace on Kurt, and Kurt will tire out. When Kurt does tire out,
he'll get caught in a submission. Thiago ends this one in the second,
after Kurt gasses.
Thiago Tavares wins by Second Round Submission.
Jason MacDonald
vs Jason Lambert:
This fight is
pretty unique. First, we have Jason Lambert making his 185 pound
debut, and second, we have MacDonald
fighting on UFC cards
back to back. Jason Day was supposed to be Lambert's original opponent,
but he got injured and MacDonald decided to step in. Lambert is a
guy who once fought at Heavyweight, he had excess skin when he went
down
to 205....I can only imagine what he'll look like at 185. It became
clear that guys were beginning to give Lambert problems with their
reach, and they were able to figure out that Lambert couldn't do
much if he was kept at bay. I won't say Lambert was a small Light
Heavyweight,
but he was pretty short and stubby. If Lambert doesn't kill himself
trying to cut down in weight, this should be a good move.  Both of
these guys are primarily grapplers, but MacDonald is a tall and rangy
guy,
so maybe he could use that to work some striking. I think MacDonald
is a good first test for Lambert, and we should learn about both
of these guys from this fight.
This could be a bad fight for MacDonald. The guys who usually give
Lambert problems seems to be long and rangy strikers who can beat
him up on the feet and defend the takedown. MacDonald isn't that
guy, and
he has never shown to be that guy. I really can't be confident in
MacDonald to fight a smart gameplan. MacDonald's last fight was against
Demian
Maia, who is a world class grappler, and MacDonald decided to take
Maia down a few times. Why would you do such a thing? If he took
Maia down, I really don't think he'll be standing with Lambert, he'll
take
Lambert down too. Lambert is no Maia on the ground, but he has some
pretty good ground and pound, and he's never been submitted in the
UFC. Babalu couldn't even submit Lambert, and Babalu was the bigger
and better grappler in that fight. Even if MacDonald does keep it
on the feet, he doesn't have the power or striking to put Lambert
out,
I think I'd actually give Lambert the edge on the feet. Lambert does
have power, but he just isn't that great technically on the feet
yet. You also have to consider that MacDonald came off a hard fight
just
a few weeks ago, he hasn't fully recovered, and he hasn't had a full
training camp. I really have a hard time picking MacDonald in this
fight.
What can MacDonald do to win this? The only thing I can see MacDonald
doing is possibly landing a guillotine, but I find that unlikely.
I really believe Lambert will be too strong, and I think he might
be
the better grappler, honestly. If Lambert isn't the better grappler,
he'll make up for it in his functional strength on the ground. What
can MacDonald do that Babalu couldn't? MacDonald will be put on his
back in this fight, and Lambert is too good on top. MacDonald won't
be able to submit from his back, he won't be able to sweep, he won't
be able to do much. MacDonald does have submissions off his back,
but Lambert isn't Ed Herman. Lambert doesn't get caught in triangles
by
default like Herman does. I think MacDonald will be tired and worn
out from his last fight and the short notice camp. His body hasn't
had the time it needs to recover in my opinion, and he's fighting
a tough guy. I probably would have picked Lambert either way, but
this
solidifies it. I think Lambert finishes Mac on the ground with some
ground and pound from the top. I have betting advice for all of you....
bet on Jason, you wont lose.
Jason Lambert wins by Second Round KO/TKO.
Matt Brown vs Dong-Hyun Kim:
We have another
Welterweight battle here that pits a TUF 7 veteran against another
rising Asian prospect. Matt
Brown will face off against
a very impressive Dong-Hyun Kim, with the winner reaching the next
level of 170 pounders. We last saw the "Stun Gun" face
off against Jason Tan at UFC 84 in his UFC debut, and Kim pretty
much dominated that fight in every possible way.  Tan isn't the best
of opponents, but the amount of domination that occurred in that
fight was very impressive. Before that, Kim spent most of his career
in DEEP in the Asian MMA scene, where he compiled an undefeated record
of 10-0-1. We last saw Brown in the TUF 7 Finale where he beat Matt
Arroyo for the second time, showing people the first time was no
fluke. The guy who wins this fight will keep moving up that Welterweight
ladder, and the loser will fall back down to the bottom. This fight
will be toughness versus technique, whoever wins that battle will
win the fight.
Brown is known for his toughness, it was very well documented on
the show, but he really doesn't impress me in any area. We know Brown
can
be taken down, we know he's vulnerable to submissions, and we know
he can be hurt standing. He's definitely a tough guy, but he isn't
immortal, as his nickname states. Kim on the other hand is pretty impressive
in every area. Kim has takedowns, he showed some pretty good striking,
but his top control and ground and pound are probably his best asset
in my opinion. Kim unleashed some pretty brutal elbows on Tan and put
him out with them, which you don't see that too often. I really don't
see Brown being able to stop the takedowns, and even if he's on his
feet I don't see him doing much.
Kim won't gas out and wait to get kicked in the face like Jeremy May.
Brown also never really showed a lot of power on the show besides that
kick, and May was begging to get kicked in the face. Brown has also
shown some signs of gassing and I think that will be one more advantage
for Kim. Kim set a very high pace last time, and I'm not sure if Brown
will be able to keep up. I really don't see anything that Brown can
do to win the fight. He just seems outmatched to me, and Kim should
be able to take him down and submit him or pound him out for the win.
Brown's a tough guy, but he has shown to be very vulnerable to submissions,
it will only be a matter of time until Kim finds the submission. I
think this is one of the best fights to bet on for this card honestly.
Kim seems almost like a lock to me in this fight, and the odds are
pretty good on him. The first rule in betting: never bet against the
Dong.
Dong-Hyun
Kim wins by First Round Submission.
UFC
88 Betting Discussion 1 | 2 | 3 |
|
