UFC 88 Analysis: Rich Franklin v Matt Hamill
by Franky Redzepi

Rich Franklin vs Matt Hamill:

Rich Franklin (-240) is going back up to Light Heavyweight at UFC 88 to face up-and-comer Matt Hamill (+190). Franklin doesn't seem to have much of a place at Middleweight anymore, so I guess this was the next best idea. Franklin said he would move up a weight class if the fight made sense, and honestly...this fight doesn't make sense to me. Why put Franklin at 205 and make him fight a huge wrestler? I'd think that they'd be better off putting Franklin against another striker at 205 to make an exciting fight, but this is what we got so I'll go with it. Both of these guys are coming off wins, Franklin just beat Lutter and Hamill just took out Tim Boetsch. Franklin has never really fought a big, strong wrestler like this. The only similar opponents that Franklin has really had are Okami and Lutter, and those are still very different fighters I think. This is another tough fight to call, but I think I might smell an upset in this one.

Franklin has always shown to be a good anti-grappler, but he does get taken down here and there. Okami was able to get him down, and even Lutter was able to take him down with his horrible shots. Franklin is almost always the bigger guy at 185 pounds, but he won't have that luxury against Hamill, he will be much smaller. Hamill is so strong he can throw guys around like nothing. Look at the trouble Rashad had when he tried to take Bisping down, and then look at how Hamill rag-dolled him. Hamill has a serious strength, size, and wrestling advantage in this one. Franklin is definitely the better striker, but Hamill has shown improvement there too. Hamill isn't exactly a technically striker, but he can throw hard and hurt you. Franklin needs to try and keep his distance on the feet and use good footwork to keep it standing. If Hamill gets a hold of Franklin I really don't think Rich will be able to stop the takedown. Hamill has a pretty good chin too, so Rich will have to do a lot to hurt him on the feet. Hamill takes a lot of punches, but he always comes back and firing away. That could end up badly for him against Franklin, but it has worked for him so far. Hamill was basically able to walk right through Bisping's punches and hurt him with his own punches. It'll take more than one punch from Franklin to put Hamill out, and I don't know if Hamill will be at distance long enough for Rich to land those strikes.

Rich should definitely be the favorite in this fight, but I don't see him winning the fight. I expect him to land a lot of punches on Hamill, but not hurting Matt. I can't see Rich stopping the takedown, or doing much from his back. I really don't think Rich is prepared for the type of fight that Hamill will push onto him. It isn't every day that you have such a powerhouse on top of you, it isn't easy getting that type of guy off of you. Maybe I'm underestimating Rich's ability to stop takedowns and get off his back, but if guys like Lutter can take him down then I think Hamill can too. Rich will definitely be in better condition, and he could land the late stoppage, but I don't see it happening. I just don't believe Franklin will be able to defend the takedown, and that will be the difference. It might not be an exciting fight, but I see Hamill taking home a decision to pull off the upset. Just a bad fight for Franklin in my opinion, not as bad as a fight against Anderson Silva, but still bad.

Matt Hamill wins by Unanimous Decision.

UFC 88 Betting Discussion

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