UFC 73:
STACKED – Fight & Betting Line Analysis
By
Matt “EzFlyer” Corenzwit
At
long last, UFC 73 is nearly upon us. While the last
couple events have been productive and bettors have
increased their bankrolls, the opportunities before us
on 7/7/07 are as juicy as can be. The moniker adopted
for the coming event couldn’t be more accurate or
descriptive: “Stacked!” We will be treated to two title
bouts, a marquee match-up fueled by bad blood, and the
UFC debut of the world’s #2 heavyweight. If that isn’t
enough, the under card is filled to the brim with
possibilities. Where UFC 72 and the TUF 5 Finale were
all about the favorites, expect UFC 73 to get back to
the underdog trend of 2007. Let's take a look!
Live Odds
supplied by
BetOnFighting.com
MAIN
CARD
Anderson Silva (-150)
Vs. Nate Marquardt (+120)
The
Middleweight Title is on the line as Anderson Silva is
set to make his first official title defense since his
annihilation of Rich Franklin last October. Standing in
his way is the seven-time King of Pancrase champion and
extremely well rounded challenger: Nate Marquardt.
Anderson Silva is arguably the best pound-for-pound
striker in the sport, and is as technical a
counter-striker as you’ll find anywhere. His clinch
game is not to be overlooked either, just ask the former
champ. Unbeaten in three UFC matches; he has proven
himself as a threat at any time from any position. The
question with Silva is and always has been simple:
takedown & submission defense. If he keeps the fight
standing, he is dangerous against anyone in the
division, period.
Nate
“The Great” is in the best shape of his life. He’s been
dominant in all four of his octagon fights, displaying
the kind of all-around skills any fighter would dream to
call their own. A master of game plans, Nate will
undoubtedly look to pressure Silva from the opening bell
and dictate the pace accordingly. He’s a terrific
wrestler, a methodical yet effective striker, and a top
notch grappler.
As
good as Anderson is (and he is a bona-fide top-ten
middleweight for sure), this is by far the toughest
match-up for him out of the entire UFC 185 lb division.
In his last fight, Silva was taken down at will and
mounted by Travis Lutter with little difficulty. He
persevered through a rough opening until Lutter gassed
out (due to a horrendous weight cut). However, the path
was paved. Travis Lutter showed Marquardt the way.
Nate, training currently with Greg Jackson’s camp in New
Mexico, knows exactly what he has to do, and how to do
it. He will slow the fight to a crawl and continually
pressure Silva. He’s competent to say the least in the
standup department and should be able to avoid serious
damage against the likes of Anderson, to be sure.
Marquardt will take Silva down over, and over, and over
again. There is little to no chance of Anderson pulling
off a submission from his back against Nate, given the
clear strength and grappling disadvantage. Expect a
long fight and a long night for the champ. Nate
Marquardt will have his hand raised at the end of the
night.
Initial lines came out around -190/+160 favoring Silva,
but are already down to -150/+120. I’d bet on Nate if
even money, thereby any underdog payout is a
can’t-miss. Anderson is certainly capable of ko’ing
anyone at any time, but if Nate sticks to his game plan,
I don’t see it happening. Nate via 4th or 5th
round stoppage or unanimous decision.
Sean Sherk (-265) Vs.
Hermes Franca (+215)
Anytime you have two elite lightweights locking horns,
it could be the fight of the night. The UFC Lightweight
championship this Saturday should be no exception. “The
Muscle Shark” is set
to
make his first title defense and prove his dominance at
the 155 lb level. Opposing him is Hermes Franca: a
scrappy, phenomenal grappler with Chuck Liddell-esque
right & left hooks.
There’s no secret to Sherk's game. A powerhouse of a
wrestler, he’s going to outmuscle you, take you down,
and pummel you into submission. The only question is:
Can you stop him? He’s got a ludicrous 31-2-1 record,
having fought the best in the business at 170 and now
155 lbs. A veteran of UFC, Pride, Pancrase, and just
about anything and everything else, he has only tasted
defeat twice, against the top two 170 lb’ers in the
world: Matt Hughes via Decision (3 rounds to 2) and
Georges St. Pierre. He’s never lost at 155. His cardio
is second to none.
Franca is on fire, sporting an 8-0 mark since the turn
of 2006, with all eight coming by way of ko/submission.
He’s got dynamite in his hands only to be superseded by
an electric ground game. A renewed focus and redefined
determination to the sport a couple years ago has seen
him prove his mettle and grappling prowess time and time
again. The amicable Brazilian will need to severely
improve his conditioning to hang with Sherk. However,
he is not intimidated by the champ.
Hermes is not scared of Sherk. He is a fantastically
gifted grappler and has the ability to finish fights at
any time. Again, he is not intimidated. …but he should
be. His confidence (or overconfidence) will be his
downfall. Until Sherk grabs a hold of you, you cannot
understand just how strong he is. I hope for Franca’s
sake that 90 % of his training is devoted to being on
his back, because he is going down fast and he is not
getting up. It’s naïve to say that a fighter is un-subbable,
or un-ko’able… but Sherk is as close to impossible to
finish in terms of submissions as they come.
Shorter/stockier limbs and a neck as big as a
heavyweight's, it is more than unlikely for him to get
caught with anything. He's proven his submission
defense on countless occasions.
The
first lines on Sherk were as low as -185, but even still
at -265, it’s as much of a lock as virtually any -400 or
higher fighter. I’m a huge fan of Hermes, but I think
it’s a serious long shot for him to cinch a submission.
I’d steer clear of him unless the line jumps closer to
+400. Sherk takes it via ground-and-pound tko, or if
Hermes can survive twenty-five grueling minutes, by
unanimous decision.
Tito Ortiz (-125) Vs.
Rashad Evans (-105)
As
is customary for any Tito Ortiz bout, the war of the
words has conjured up quite a stir. From public shoving
matches to trash talking, this grudge match has bad
blood written all over it. True contempt in an
atmosphere as competitive as the UFC generally breeds
some fantastic fights. Will Tito surge back to the top
for another title shot, or is Rashad ready for his turn
in the spotlight?
Tito
has some of the more vicious ground-and-pound in the
entire sport. When he takes you down, he doesn’t even
try to pass your guard. He will push his opponent
against the cage and unleash a steady diet of elbows and
punches until the ref pulls him off or the round ends.
He learned early in his career facing Frank Shamrock
just how important conditioning is, and has taken it to
another level. He does not tire…certainly not in a
fifteen minute fight. The former champ’s standup has
gotten better every fight as well.
Rashad, The Ultimate Fighter 2’s heavyweight winner, has
never lost a fight. In the embryonic phase of his
career, at heavyweight, he showed tremendous grit,
heart, and a terrific wrestling base. He didn’t have a
killer instinct, however, and generally went the full
fifteen minutes to a judge's decision every fight.
Since moving down to light heavyweight, however, he has
been vastly more explosive, energetic, and improved. He
has shown the propensity to finish in more recent bouts
as well and has never looked better. Granted, Ortiz is
more durable than either Sean Salmon or Jason Lambert,
but the marked improvement in Evans is undeniable.
The
main question in this fight is: Is Rashad ready for the
next level? Will he be nervous, will he handle the
pressure, and is he ready to fight a stalwart ranked
fighter like Ortiz? We should get our answer on
Saturday. On paper, however, I firmly believe that
Evans is the better wrestler, striker, and is certainly
more athletic and explosive. Tito has also been on
somewhat of a decline in the last several years,
fighting sparsely and quite frankly, has not
legitimately beaten anyone worthwhile in five years.
His best wins in that span have been split decision
victories against Forrest Griffin and Vitor Belfort.
Many observers (me included) contest and maintain that
he should have lost both decisions. He has not evolved
and adapted his game to the sport today. Tito has
nothing off of his back and zero submission game in an
applicable/effective sense at this level of MMA.
I
resolutely embrace Evans as even money, much less as an
underdog. Tito’s got the bigger name and fan base, to
be sure, so it may be prudent to let the line sit for a
day or two, and pounce on Evans at +110 or +120 after
they hammer “The Huntington Beach Bad Boy” … Rashad
Evans by decision.
Antonio Rodrigo
Nogueira (-625) Vs. Heath Herring (+475)
A
year or two ago, who could’ve predicted it? Pride
Fighting Championships’ top heavyweights (and the best
heavyweights in the world at that) fighting in the US,
and in the UFC. Whether it’s
a dream come true or a nightmare is yet to be
determined, but one would hope the casual fan can
appreciate the skill sets that mixed martial
artists like Nogueira bring to the table. In his
octagon debut, he takes on another former Pride standout
from years back, in his third UFC appearance: Heath
Herring. In what will be their third fight,
conventional wisdom suggests that Herring will taste
defeat yet again. Heath has noticeably slowed down
since his early days in Pride, and is more of a brawler
now than ever. A bum knee and generally less
athleticism than he displayed several years back will
prevent him from approaching the elite ranks of the
sport again. A battler until the bitter end, though, he
is a fitting first test in the octagon for “Minotauro”
Nogueira.
If
you haven’t seen Nogueira fight, I sincerely recommend
watching some Pride footage. Currently ranked #2 in the
world, there is no better heavyweight submission artist
in the history of MMA, no one with a better chin, and no
one in any weight class with as much heart. No fighter
in all of MMA is more comfortable on his back, and his
guard retention is second to none. If he gets top
position, he will have side control or mount within
seconds. Minotauro is never out of any fight. He’s
been slammed and punished by a 390 lb Bob Sapp, battered
by a barrage of punches & kicks from Cro Cop, and never
relented. He has never been stopped, and has virtually
the best record and resume of anyone in the sport’s
history, aside from the undisputed #1, Fedor (we’ll be
discussing him soon, I hope!) Nogueira & his twin
brother have immensely improved their boxing & standup
skills from the early days of the sport as well, and is
a legitimate threat on his feet.
…That all said, the bookmakers know who Nogueira is, and
the line expects to be around -700 or worse. Is he a
lock? Yes, he’s a lock. Is it worth it? I don’t think
-700 is ever worth it in this sport, where anything can
and does happen. That said, I wouldn’t bet on Herring
if he was +800, let alone +400 or +500, as is expected.
Enjoy watching Minotauro, I know I will!
Kenny Florian
(-320) Vs. Alvin Robinson (+260)
It
sounds odd calling 'KenFlo' the grizzled veteran of this
lightweight tilt, but that's the reality of
it.
Florian is entering his 7th UFC bout, coming off the TUF
1 series to boot. He's been around the block, and has
proven people wrong just about every step of the way.
There is no question he has an extreme experience
advantage over "Kid" Robinson. Kenny's muay-thai has
grown leaps and bounds as well and is a legitimate
standup fighter, but still relies on his BJJ to carry
him in the octagon. Enter Alvin Robinson: 24 year old
fellow grappler with some serious submission skills.
Untested in terms of UFC level competition to be sure,
as tough a first UFC fight as this is, I think he has
the tools to take this fight. Is he likely to finish
KenFlo? I wouldn't necessarily bet on that, even if all
of his wins come via submission. Robinson may indeed
come in as the superior athlete with more to prove, and
it might help him raise his game to the next level.
Lines are expected to be released in the realm of -400
+300. I'd steer clear of Florian at odds that steep,
but I think Robinson is worth a shot. Robinson via
split decision, his first decision!
Under Card
Stephan
Bonnar (-450) Vs. Mike Nickels (+370)
The
number one question in this fight is clearly: How will
Bonnar perform following nearly a year
off
from fighting? Bonnar was suspended by the NSAC & UFC
due to some steroid issues, so there are certainly some
questions about him entering Saturday's fight. That
said, his opponent is quite possibly the worst standup
fighter in the entire UFC 205 lb division: Mike Nickels
of TUF 3. Nickels is a tough guy. He's an above
average grappler and a heck of a tattoo artist (The
latter being the most important aspect of this fight).
Stephan has never been subbed, although he's never
really faced a strict submission practitioner. That
said, Nickels takedown ability is very poor, and he
should be picked apart and bloodied up on the feet. The
line is expected to be in the vicinity of -600/+400.
Due to the gaudy odds in favor of Bonnar, his absence
from the UFC and MMA, etc., I'd pass on this fight
unless somehow "The American Psycho" garners a better
payout. Bonnar via 2nd round tko.
Jorge Gurgel
(-300) Vs. Diego Saraiva (+240)
Not
much has been made of this fight, which frankly is more
suited to an UFN than a PPV card.
Gurgel
of TUF 2 fame is a longtime training partner of Rich
Franklin, but has not yet lived up to the potential and
hype surrounding him. Although victorious in his last
UFC bout, it didn't help his cause, where he went to
decision with Danny Abbadi. If you can't finish Abbadi,
you can't really finish anyone in the UFC, and certainly
aren't worthy of being -260ish against anyone in the
octagon. Saraiva makes his second appearance in the UFC
following a spirited performance against a very game
Dustin Hazelett. Saraiva never quits and likes to put
pressure on his opponents, and I see him doing exactly
that en route to a decision win for the underdog. +200
is a solid payout and worth a gander, if the official
line is in the ballpark. Saraiva by unanimous decision.
Chris Lytle
(-410) Vs. Jason Gilliam (+330)
"Lights Out" Lytle looks to get back on the winning
track against Jeff Joslin... no wait, Drew
Fickett...
sorry, Jason Gilliam in the night's only welterweight
match-up. Joslin and Fickett pulled out with injuries,
and Gilliam steps in as a late replacement. Coming back
up in weight to his more natural 170 following an
inauspicious debut at UFC 68, Gilliam is probably in for
a tough night. Lytle, while not much a finisher
himself, is nearly impossible to stop, sporting
tremendous submission defense and a very solid boxing
game. Having fought many of the UFC's best 170 lb'ers,
it is unlikely that Gilliam will show Lytle anything he
hasn't seen before. Is Chris worthy of -400 to -500?
No. Is Gilliam worth a shot at +300ish? Not for my
money. Lytle by unanimous decision.
Frankie Edgar
(-310) Vs. Mark Bocek (+250)
If
Frankie Edgar's UFC debut was any indication, this may
very well be the fight of the night. His shocking upset
win over Tyson Griffin in February is probably the
second best fight thus far in
2007
(Griffin-Guida was the best!). He showed spectacular
poise and confidence to go along with a top-notch
wrestling base. He also stayed in the pocket for the
majority of the fight and arguably out-struck the
powerhouse that is Tyson Griffin. While he is a
legitimate favorite on the heels of that impressive
victory, the unbeaten Edgar is hardly a guarantee this
Saturday. Mark Bocek has yet to taste defeat in his own
right, and is one of Canada's top grapplers. He's
beaten UFC vet Kurt Pellegrino, and has looked
impressive rolling on the mat with none other than BJ
Penn. Were this fight even money, I'd definitely take
Edgar, but given the potential payout of +275 or higher
on Bocek, It's certainly worth a stab. Better value bet
is with Bocek, but smart money is on Edgar if he comes
in anywhere under -250. I'm going to go out on a limb
and say: Bocek by 2nd round rear naked choke. (But I'd
not be surprised in the least to see Edgar win a
decision.)
Lines to be updated upon release towards the end of the
week. Please bet responsibly!
Editor Note: EzFlyer
was 7-1 on UFC 72 selections and stands overall at 25-14
on UFC picks.
