UFC 72: Victory! Fight & Betting Line Analysis

By Matt “EzFlyer” Corenzwit

 

Another month has passed, and time again it is to shell out another 40 clams for our obligatory monthly PPV.  While the card may lack a true Main Event and the star-power we deserve and expect, there are some decent betting opportunities.  The favorites look good for Saturday, but let’s take a closer look!

 

Odds supplied by BetOnFighting.com … This article will be updated when the official lines are released (except for Franklin-Okami)

 

MAIN CARD

 

Rich Franklin (-180) Vs. Yushin Okami (+150)

Although it may be considered a lackluster “Main Event”, this is the unofficial #1 contender match in the Middleweight Title picture.  All indications are that the winner of the fight will be facing the winner of Anderson Silva/Nate Marquardt, which takes place next month.  Save Franklin’s UFC Title fights, there is very little discernable difference in level of competition faced and overall experience.  Franklin has nine UFC bouts to his name (8-1), and a sterling record overall (21-2).  Aside from that very difficult night against Silva when he lost his belt, he’s dominated practically every fight he’s had in the octagon.  Okami’s right up there with “Ace”.  The Japanese fighter comes in unbeaten in the UFC at 4-0 and overall sports a very impressive 20-3 record.  Interestingly enough, Okami holds a win (via DQ, up-kick while on knees) over the very man who took Franklin’s belt.  Both fighters have also faced essentially as many top 185’ers as anyone in the division, in any organization.  (granted, that isn’t saying much, considering that 185 quite possibly the weakest division in MMA presently.)

 

Okami’s game plan is no secret.  His strength lies in the clinch and in ground’n’pound.  Regardless of opponent, be he a grappler, striker, or jiu-jitsu practitioner, Okami wants to suck the strength out of his adversary and smash the life out of him on the mat.  He’s been very successful.  Each of his last two opponents (Kalib Starnes, Mike Swick) has said the same thing to their corners following the first round: “He’s too strong.”  Aside from Fedor Emelianenko, or perhaps Tito Ortiz (using elbows), one would be hard pressed to find a more efficient striker from within his opponent’s guard.  Yushin is not much of a standup fighter or counter-striker, at least not against the likes of Franklin.  He has to get Rich to the ground and slow down the fight.  It’s his only shot.

 

Franklin’s no stranger to anyone who follows the UFC or mixed martial arts.  A longtime champion of the organization and poster boy of the UFC, Franklin has no perceived weakness in the sport.  Yes, he got caught by Anderson Silva.  He underestimated Silva’s strength in the clinch and reaped the consequences.  This will not happen against Yushin Okami.  When a fighter relies entirely on overpowering his opponent, that fighter will be in serious trouble when a bigger, stronger fighter who is terrific both on the ground and standing comes along.  Franklin can win this fight by any conventional method he chooses.  If it remains standing, he will either continually come forward and win an easy decision or get the KO.  If he secures the takedown against Okami, he will be in a fantastic position against a guy who’s not known for being particularly adept on his back.  Franklin’s best asset is his ability to finish fights, to always be the aggressor.  If there is an opening, Rich will fly through it and get the stoppage.  When Okami faced Mike Swick, a much smaller individual than Rich, he had no answer when he was barraged by punches.  Franklin will have that approach from the opening bell.  Don’t anticipate the line changing much on the fight, and -180 is likely to be as good of a payout as you’ll find.  I’d definitely steer clear of Okami at +150, he only has one chance to win (decision), and I don’t see it happening.

 

 

Forrest Griffin (-250) Vs. Hector Ramirez (+200)

Our favorite self-deprecating TUF-1 champ is back in the octagon for the first time since his disappointing December loss to Keith Jardine.  Having had to pull out of UFC 70 due to a staff infection, Forrest is back 100 % healthy and has a seemingly more confident demeanor.  To say he wants to get back on the winning track would be an understatement.  Facing Griffin on Saturday is Hector “Sick Dog” Ramirez: a brawler who swings for the fences.   Ramirez’s sole UFC appearance was back in UFC 65 against James Irvin, who, stylistically is fairly close to Forrest (height, reach, technical standup, etc.).  Ramirez came out aggressive as can be, looking terrific in the first round. However, he was unable to seal the deal in the opening stanza even after getting Irvin’s back.  After weathering the storm, Irvin buckled Ramirez with a simple counterpunch and finished the fight.  I expect this fight to go pretty much the same way.  If Forrest can withstand the initial onslaught, he should easily take the fight.  Forrest has always had good cardio and is much more fundamentally sound than Ramirez.  Expect most bettors to pound Forrest, but if the line does come out at -200 or better, I like the payout.  I’d abstain from betting on Ramirez unless the line favors Forrest immensely…+350 or higher.

 

 

Tyson Griffin (-170) Vs. Clay Guida (+140)

In what should be the fight of the night, I absolutely love Tyson Griffin.  Preliminary expectations are that the line will be around -170 for Griffin, and I think it’s a terrific opportunity to make some coin.  Although he is merely 5’6, Tyson is a beast of a lightweight. Size-wise, he is on par with Sean Sherk and Joe Stevenson.  He has phenomenal wrestling, excellent power, and a very aggressive submission game.  He’s also the only fighter to ever defeat Urijah Faber (at 145).  The last time we saw Griffin was in the best fight thus far of ’07: Griffin vs. Frankie Edgar.  Even though he lost the decision, both fighters saw their stock increase exponentially.  Clay Guida is certainly no pushover, however, and the fight will very possibly go the full fifteen minutes.  Guida is an absolute battler who never seems to tire.  He’s been in there with practically every top LW outside of Pride FC and held his own.  I feel the strength advantage and wrestling is the biggest key to this fight for Griffin.  I’m not sure how Guida will be able to handle him.  If indeed Griffin comes in around the mid -100’s, it’s one of my top bets of the night.

 

 

Jason MacDonald (-185) Vs. Rory Singer (+155)

Tall & lanky grappling TUF’er meets tall & lanky grappling TUF-killer.  I’ll be somewhat surprised if this fight ends prematurely, as I expect to hear a lot of boo’s and a judge’s decision as the dust settles.  MacDonald will likely come in as a considerable favorite in his first bout since being a punching bag in Rich Franklin’s rebound fight.  He’s got a wealth of experience and is a much more aggressive fighter/submission artist.  Singer, of TUF 3 fame, is a much more technical striker who has a very solid guard.  Overall toughness has been the biggest knock on Rory up until this point, who essentially gave up during the show against Ed Herman and against Yushin Okami.  That said, Macdonald does not pose the same type of threat, having not displayed much prowess in the way of striking or GnP.  Mac is, however, a very intense grappler who should test Singer’s ground game.  Rory, while not terribly aggressive, is in actuality a fairly proficient striker who can score some points in the standup game.  However, his ordinary reach advantage is negated by MacDonald, who’s 6’3 himself.  Rory also has a pretty active guard that would frighten many standup fighters…but not MacDonald.   I see the fight going to decision with Rory getting the better of the standup, Mac getting the better of it on the mat.  If Singer is +250 or higher, I think there’s actually a decent chance for upset.  If conversely, the line is as close as I feel it should be, MacDonald is probably a decent value in the low -100’s.  Singer has more tools, and if he can indeed negate the sub attempts by Mac, I think it’s a solid underdog bet.

 

UNDER CARD

 

Ed Herman (-170) Vs. Scott Smith (+140)

In what may very well be the best bet of the night (depending on the odds), we have a classic conflict of styles.  Ed “Short Fuse” Herman, although having lost twice in the UFC (Jason MacDonald’s coming out party & Kendall Grove in the TUF 3 finale), is a tremendous a grappler.  If you saw the way he transitioned from the back to the straight armbar against Chris Price, you know what I mean.  He’s also displayed some lethal GnP.  Although Anderson Silva, Rich Franklin, and maybe even Drew McFedries may disagree, there may not be a stronger puncher in the UFC’s 185 lb. division than Scott Smith.  His desperation bomb of a punch that ko’d Pete Sell was an instant classic.  Sadly for Smith, all the punching power in the world won’t do him a bit of good when he’s on his back getting pummeled into submission.  I look for Herman to clinch, take Smith down, rain down some punches until a submission opportunity presents itself.  First round submission: Ed Herman.  If, by a stroke of luck, the line comes out even, Herman is the best bet of the night.  Expectations are that it will be closer to -180 or so, however, and I still like the payout.  Smith can certainly KO anyone in the division, I just don’t see it happening, and certainly not for less than +200.

 

Marcus Davis (-370) Vs. Jason Tan (+300)

Marcus Davis has improved as much as any fighter from TUF 2.  Formerly strictly a standup fighter, he has finished two of his last three opponents in the UFC via submission.  In fact, he maintained back control on Shonie Carter for nearly an entire round en route to a decision victory.  He seems to be very capable in any facet of the sport, leastwise against B and C level fighters.  Very little is known about Jason Tan.  What we do know is that he is 4-1 against relative nobodies.  Unless, for some reason, this fight comes out close to even money, my rule of thumb is not to invest heavily in or against the unknown.  Davis has a considerable experience edge and has proven to be a game competitor.

 

Dustin Hazelett (-240) Vs. Stevie Lynch (+190)

See Marcus Davis Vs. Jason Tan.  Just kidding.  Not really.  Dustin Hazelett enters the octagon for the third time on the heels of a decision win over Diego Saraiva.  He has a height and reach advantage over just about anyone in the 155 lb. division which he uses effectively to negate superior strikers’ standup game.  An effective grappler from the bottom, he is generally comfortable in any position.  This is noteworthy because typically, a good wrestler will have no trouble putting Dustin on his back.  His opponent, Stevie Lynch, may receive the biggest ovation during fighter introductions, being a native son of Ireland.  He’s relatively new to the sport and this will undoubtedly be his toughest test to date.  Unless the payout on Hazelett is close to even, mark down another bout on which to abstain betting.  This is what happens when we’re treated to multiple events per month, every month…unknown or sub-par fighters.  We’ll wait till Saturday to make any official judgments, though.

 

Eddie Sanchez (-200) Vs. Colin Robinson (+160)

In what should be the usual heavyweight slugfest, Eddie Sanchez re-enters the octagon for the first time since being the ceremonial piñata for Mirko Cro Cop.  Forgotten is the fact that, while completely overmatched in that match up, Sanchez is a formidable striker in his own right.  By virtue of his win over Mario Neto In his UFC debut, he displayed the grit and knockout power that could make him a decent fighter for years to come.  Living by the claim that his right hand can knock out any opponent, he’ll get his chance to prove it this weekend when he faces Ireland’s own Colin Robinson.  Colin, like Tan and Lynch, is making his UFC debut in what is by far his biggest fight to date.  There is little chance that this brawl will go three full rounds, or it will be an upset in its own right.  If you’re in the first row and hear “Timber!!," I’d advise getting out of the way (or hiding behind Michael Clarke Duncan).  One of these extra-large men will be getting ko’d.  Aside from Robinson’s payout nearing +400 or higher, I’m probably staying away from this one as well.  Sanchez is a legitimate favorite, but cannot merit any kind of substantial odds.

 

Lines to be updated when released towards the end of the week.  Please bet responsibly!