UFC fans
are in for a treat in the coming months. The recent
acquisitions and fighter developments are coming along
nicely and are presenting us with solid, well put-together
fight cards. After seeing plenty of -500 +400 fights over
the past year, it’s a breath of fresh air to have evenly
matched fights across the board. Odds were supplied by
Sportsbetting.com
*** Further
Analysis when official odds are posted***
Chuck Liddell (-220) vs. Quinton Jackson (+180)
I’m not
sure if I can think of a single bout about which I’ve been
this uncertain. At first I thought that Liddell, with
his greatly improved takedown defense and overall better
conditioning would be more ready this time around.
Then I considered how much this fight means to Jackson and
how his style perfectly counteracted that of the Iceman’s
last time around. I’m still spinning in circles with
this one, from Jackson’s iron jaw and ability to withstand
punishment to Chuck’s propensity to dish out said
punishment. There are three conclusions I have made in
analyzing this bout.
-It’s
going to live up to the hype. This should be a battle
that should NOT end quickly. Both fighters have
terrific standup, terrific chins, solid cardio. It’s a
title match, so we won’t have an illegitimate decision
ending this fight after only 15 minutes.
-One of
Jackson’s self-admitted weaknesses in the past has been
fighters with “Stanky Breff.” This should be a
non-issue with Chuck, who will unquestionably try to keep
his distance.
-I’m
split 50/50 on who will win. Rampage is capable of
slamming anyone through the canvas if he gets hold of his
opponent. Chuck can end any fight at any time with
either leg or either hand. Neither will have any quit
in him. So, my pick for the better wager is definitely
Jackson. I’d be hard pressed to argue with anyone
picking Jackson even if the odds were even. We’re
afforded the luxury of a +180 payout on ‘Page, and I think
it’s a better value bet than Chuck. Nearly 2:1 payout
for what I perceive as 1:1 chance is pretty darn good.
Karo Parisyan (-350) vs.
Josh Burkman (+275)
Solid
matchmaking once again, this fight makes sense for both
fighters. For Burkman, it’s his chance to enter the top
echelon of 170. Karo gets another chance to cement his
place among the elite and put another solid win after
dropping a decision to Diego Sanchez. Experience edge is
definitely with Karo in this fight. He’s faced much tougher
competition than Burkman and shouldn’t be easily rattled by
anything Josh brings to the table. Josh’s edge is
definitely going to be in wrestling, if he can maintain his
balance and avoid any of Parisyan’s patented
throws/reversals. A KO is unlikely, with neither fighter
being terribly strong or weak in the standup game. Karo’s
shown terrific toughness and resilience thus far, but it’s
hard to say that Burkman lacks in that category, as his only
blemish has been against the very game Jon Fitch. Karo is
definitely a legitimate favorite, but frankly, I’m not sure
the -350 payout is worth the risk. Burkman won’t be easy to
finish, and it’s hard to bet against good wrestlers in MMA
when it goes to a decision. I’d abstain from betting unless
the line improves for either fighter. (+350 or higher for
Burk, -275 or lower for Karo… but I wouldn’t hold my breath
in either case.)
Terry Martin (+/-xxx) vs. Ivan Salaverry (+/-xxx)
Crafty all-around veteran meets revamped powerhouse in
this middleweight tilt. Salaverry, ever the
professional with no perceived weakness, could be
hampered a bit by some ring rust, after a couple
inactive years (Six fights in the last four years, only
one last year.)
He generally comes in prepared, but there’s
something to be said for the layoff. Martin, on the
other hand, made the move from 205 to 185 after his
loss to Jason Lambert last year. At 185, the man is
a monster. He’s now 3-0 with 3 ko’s since making
the move, including a 14 second knockout at UFC 67
over the durable Jorge Rivera. If Martin can
sustain his energy level for a potential full
fifteen minutes and not gas out, I believe he will
easily handle the veteran Salaverry. Ivan will
certainly need to weather the storm over the first
stanza and hope to pull off a sub thereafter. My
money’s on Martin if the line is anywhere near even,
let alone if he comes in as an underdog.
Keith Jardine (-xxx) vs. Houston Alexander (+xxx)
I’m
not sure what the UFC hopes to accomplish with this
fight, other than perhaps to promote Jardine with a
potential marquee matchup in his next outing. The Dean
of Mean will undoubtedly come in as a heavy favorite
over the relatively unknown Alexander, and justifiably
so. Alexander relies on striking, from various reports,
but is vastly inexperienced in comparison to Jardine,
who will be making his 6th official UFC bout.
(not including TUF 2) Jardine is peaking and should run
over anyone in the division outside the top five.
Unless Alexander is the second coming of Sudoku
(Sokoudjou), I’d steer clear. Conversely, I’d recommend
abstaining from any sizable wagers when dealing with the
unknown.
Chris Leben (-xxx) vs. Kalib Starnes (+xxx)
TUF 1
meets TUF 3, striker meets grappler, brash meets
reserved. Chris Leben is hungry, nay, starving for a
win. With two losses in his last three fights and a
proud fighter’s reputation on the line, he should come
out on fire. Starnes, on the other hand, comes in with
the stigma of a lack of toughness/heart. A rib injury
forced him to quit in round 3 against Kendall Grove
during the show, and he folded under the power/strength
of Yushin Okami in round 3. Leben should come in as a
decently sized favorite due to greater notoriety and
experience, with a wrestling background to keep the
fight standing. That said, I firmly believe that Kalib
is the most talented 185’er from TUF to date. He’s been
training with American Top Team and none other than
Minotauro (Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira) for this fight. If
Starnes can survive the initial onslaught from “The
Crippler”, and gets Leben up against the fence for a
takedown, I think he has a fantastic shot. Leben has
trained extensively with Team Quest, so he is certainly
well versed on the mat, but Starnes is flat-out a better
grappler. I’m going with Starnes for a nice underdog
payout after some ground domination.
Undercard
Thiago Silva (+/-xxx)
vs. James Irvin (+/-xxx)
Silva is the newest
fighter from the renowned Chute Box academy to make
his way to the heavyweights of Pride and UFC. He
comes in sporting an unbeaten record of 9-0, but is
relatively inexperienced in the sport, having fought
only journeymen & other newcomers thus far. Irvin
will definitely be his biggest test, but early
footage on Thiago indicates that he has all the
tools and explosiveness to excel. After all, he is
from Chute Box and is a top pupil of
Jorge Macaco. Irvin we know pretty well by now.
He's a terrific athlete who loves to throw the
leather. This will mark his 5th time in the UFC and
he should be able to hold his own if the fight stays
standing. Whether or not Silva lives up to the hype
of being "the next Wanderlei" (Chute box, similar
style/energy) will determine the winner. We should
have a better understanding of the upstart's
potential after this fight. If either fighter comes
in around +200 or higher, it's certainly worth a
look.
Alan Belcher
(+/-xxx) vs. Sean Salmon (+/-xxx)
There's no secret what
each fighter wants to do here. Salmon is a
decorated collegiate wrestler who will be driving
for the TD from the sound of the bell. Belcher will
want to keep the fight on the feet as much as
possible and avoid being flat on his back at all
costs. Both fighters are coming off somewhat
disappointing performances (albeit Salmon was a huge
underdog against Rashad Evans) and will come into
this fight hungry for a win. Belcher has a
substantial striking (and reach) advantage and if he
keeps his distance, we may see a second RHK
highlight K.O. of Salmon. It should be noted that
Belcher took this fight on short notice, after
Eric Schafer pulled out with a
broken rib, and his conditioning failed him
considerably against Kendall Grove. Judging by
Salmons performance in round 1 against Rashad Evans
and the conditioning factor in Belcher's corner, I'd
definitely go with Salmon to control the pace if he
can avoid an early barrage. The line is rumored to
be close to even, but if Salmon is the underdog by
any stretch, therein lies the smart money.
Din Thomas (-xxx) vs.
Jeremy Stephens (+xxx)
Will
youth be served in the night's only Lightweight
tilt? Considering the newcomer Stephens' opponent:
Not likely. "Dinyero" Din Thomas is a true veteran
of the sport and has been borderline top ten for
over five years. He may be on a slight decline, but
he's still solid in every avenue of mixed martial
arts. Stephens comes in as a scrapper who doesn't
like to quit. Every fighter has a "puncher's
chance," but that might be just about the only
chance Stephens has. Still, a good showing in
defeat could help him improve and make his name in
the UFC. If Thomas comes in anywhere under -350, it
should be a pretty solid investment, but I'd steer
clear of betting on Stephens no matter the underdog
payout. Thomas is too wily a veteran to be
dominated in any area, as he can change the fight's
course to his liking at any time.
Wilson Gouveia (-xxx)
vs. Carmelo Marrero (+xxx)
Carmelo Marrero is a
terrific wrestler who loves to stifle and smother
his opponents on the canvas. He's shown the ability
to avoid incurring damage while standing, but does
not want to stay standing for long. Previously a
heavyweight, he reassessed his fighting weight and
conditioning after being unable to control the beast
that is Gabriel Gonzaga in his last fight. Wilson
Gouveia comes from a great team in American Top Team
and is a very versatile fighter. He's won two
straight fights in the octagon, and has a diverse
submission game and some fantastic leg kicks. The
knock on Gouveia is clear-cut: he gasses. Aside
from a decision win in '03, he has never won a fight
that's gone past six minutes in his career. This
was never more evident than in his fight against
Keith Jardine, where he easily won the first round.
If his fight with Marerro gets out of the first
round, I do not like his chances. Assuming
Marrero comes in as the underdog, he will definitely
be my wager selection.
--Official lines to be
posted as soon as they are released
