UFC 70: When Nations Collide 

 

Buckle up, MMA fans!  UFC 70 on paper is the most stacked and most competitive UFC card thus far in ’07.  Anticipation and excitement are in the air, we can only hope this weekend’s event lives up to the expectations.  The UFC is breaking new ground in this installment: Manchester, UK.  The names are there: Cro Cop, Arlovski, Bisping (to name a few).  Not much love for the lighter fighters this event, but solid nonetheless.  Title implications are abound.  Pay-Per-View costs are absent!  That’s right, this Saturday it’s free on SPIKE TV.  Onto the betting odds & fight analysis!

 

As usual, we’ll be using sportsbetting.com odds.  Apply views to differing values appropriately and bet responsibly!

 

MAIN CARD

 

Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic (-600) vs Gabriel Gonzaga (+400)

 

A Heavyweight Title shot hangs in the balance in the main event this Saturday as these two collide.  Let’s make one thing clear: “Half-Nog” Gonzaga is no joke.  He is no pushover.  Coming into this bout, Gonzaga is a sterling 3-0 in the UFC and 7-1 in his MMA career (His only loss to the superb Fabricio Werdum over three years ago; coincidentally, Werdum is a training partner of Cro Cop’s).  Without question, Gonzaga has the tools to manipulate and potentially submit anyone on the mat.  The pertinent questions of course are:  1) Will he? 2) Is it worth +400 payout?

 

The longer it takes Gonzaga to secure a takedown, the harder it will be.  Cro Cop is notorious for his stellar TD defense, and I think the cage & more specifically its size (compared to the PRIDE ring) will make it even harder to get him flat on his back.  I don’t see Gonzaga as having the TD ability required in this case.  In other words, short of Fedor coming into the octagon, or “Big Nog”, who is essentially Gonzaga with more skills, better striking, and a harder chin… I don’t see anyone stopping Mirko’s march to the belt.  Three or four years ago, Gonzaga would have a great shot. (See Shockwave ’03, where Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira destroyed Cro Cop when he finally got him down)  The Mirko of today is too experienced and too well versed in grappling to be easily submitted.  He learned a couple years ago when he fought Randleman what underestimating an opponent can do, and he will never do it again.

 

+400 looks nice when alongside Gonzaga’s name, but in my opinion: not against the likes of Mirko.  So is -600 worth an investment on Mirko?  Frankly, in this writer’s opinion: no.  I reserve the Fedor Emelianenko-Matt Lindland’s, the Tito Ortiz-Ken Shamrock 2’s/3’s,  and the Georges St. Pierre-Matt Serra’s (oops!!) for the bets large enough to make such lines worthwhile.  If you can find a line on Cro Cop under -400, I think it’s an excellent investment. (BODOG had Cro Cop at -360 last night, for example.)

 

Michael Bisping (-500) vs Elvis Sinosic (+350)

 

Don’t ask me to explain what Sinosic is doing here, short of being a punching bag for the Hometown ‘Count’ Bisping.  Don’t get me wrong, Elvis is a class act and a battler.  He’s been around the game forever.  His only, and I mean *only* notable win was in ’01 when he submitted Jeremy Horn.  Bisping, while still raw in grappling, comes in at 12-0 and throwing haymakers.  This fight is likely to resemble Forrest Griffin vs Elvis Sinosic: A “gimme” fight to promote the TUF standout.  Elvis’ best attribute is certainly grappling, which of course is likely Bisping’s weakness, but I can’t see this going anywhere but a TKO for Bisping.  Frankly, -500 isn’t a terrible price if you can afford it.  If you have a limited budget with which to bet, I’d steer clear and take your shot elsewhere on the card.

 

Andre Arlovski (-115) vs Fabricio Werdum (-115)

 

 I cannot tell you how excited I am for this matchup.  Two bona-fide Top-Ten Heavyweights (currently AA sits at 7, Werdum at 8).  I cannot tell you what the UFC was/is thinking with this match.  This is Werdum’s first UFC fight, the man who many believe responsible for Cro Cop’s terrific ground-defense, a man who went the distance with Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, and subbed Aleksander Emelianenko in two minutes flat.  Although ranking fighters is pointless, and seemingly impossible due to the amount of upsets thus far in ’07, I have Werdum solidly at #5.  I do not understand why they aren’t building him up by giving him an easier fight or promoting him, but that is neither here nor there.  Arlovski, on the other hand, is a UFC standout whom any casual fan in the states recognizes immediately.  He’s had twelve fights already in the UFC, packs a MEAN punch, has tremendous footwork for a HW, and a is capable of finishing fights with submissions.

 

Arlovski comes from a Sambo background, thereby he is certainly versed in submissions/grappling.  That said, he had better not, I repeat, NOT get horizontal at any point in this tilt.  I firmly believe that his only chance to win this fight is via decision by keeping it standing.  There’s a fine line between being a good grappler, which he is, and an elite level grappler.  Fabricio Werdum, Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu extraordinaire, is an elite grappler.  Nogueira himself said prior and following their bout that Werdum is a superior BJJ practitioner.  His only two losses have come via decision to Nogueira (due to superior striking) and a split-decision loss to Kharitonov (who, at the time looked primed to challenge Fedor).  If you have never heard of or seen Werdum, do not mistake this as a great payout for UFC veteran Arlovski.

 

Hopeful though I was for Fabricio to come in as an underdog, the line came out even (Werdum only slightly an underdog on a couple other sites).  That said, expect this line to change in the next couple days before the fight.  AA will get more action due to name recognition, and Werdum’s payout will increase.  If you like Arlovski, get your action in now, but if you like Fabricio, as I do, wait until late on Friday night, more or less.

 

Ryoto Machida (-350) vs David Heath (+250)

 

Ryoto finally makes his televised debut on Saturday.  (not counting the WFA fight last summer with Vernon White, I fell asleep.)  The ongoing “Who’s this Machida guy?” saga will finally have answers for many.  If you don’t know who Machida is, he’s 9-0 thus far in MMA with wins over household names: Rich Franklin, Stephan Bonnar, B.J. Penn (severe weight advantage), Vernon White, and most recently in his UFC debut, Sam Hoger.  No one’s really sure on the man, to be perfectly frank.  He’s got a laundry list of wins, but has shown little-to-no finishing ability in his two biggest stages. (White and Hoger decision wins).  I’d submit the argument that White and Hoger are very difficult to finish, and both fighters make pretty much anyone look bad.  Heath, a replacement for Forrest Griffin, also comes in at a sterling 9-0, with a 2-0 mark in the UFC.  His two most notable wins are the game Victor Valimaki and possibly Sean Salmon…and has certainly not faced the level of competition that Machida has.  Both fighters are fairly well rounded, but I don’t see either one of them being able to stop this fight prior to the final bell.  I expect Machida to take it via decision, but frankly, I don’t like either betting line.  Hopefully we’ll all have a more clear view of Machida’s abilities after this fight.  I’d take a stab at Ryoto “Lyoto” if it was under -200, but at -350, I just don’t like it. We just don’t know how he is off of his back, etc., whereas Heath comes in having faced lesser competition.  If you think he can GnP a decision, +250 could be worth it, but as of now I’m abstaining from betting on this tilt.

 

Assuerio Silva (-275) vs Cheick Kongo (+215)

 

Three HW bouts is a bit much if you ask me for one main televised card, but that’s what we’ve got.  Rounding out the trio are two muscle-bound behemoths in Silva and Kongo.  Do not simply look at Assuerio’s 0-2 UFC record.  The former Chute Box fighter’s only losses in the last several years have come to Tim Sylvia, Brandon Vera, and Aleksander Emelianenko (in PRIDE).  Sometimes criticized for lack of energy or explosiveness, he is VERY well rounded, being versed in BJJ and Muay-Thai/Karate.  Kongo, on the other hand, is the superior striker with a distinct reach advantage to be sure, but is completely inferior on the mat.  If you watched his last fight against Carmelo Marrero, you’d see such evidence.  Silva certainly the more experienced fighter and has without question faced much tougher competition.  That said, his takedown ability is not where it needs to be to cinch an easy victory by any measure.  I prefer the line on Kongo at +215, and didn’t exactly expect it to be over 200.  I am not sold either way on this fight, but I definitely see Cheick being much more capable of ending it quickly if it remains standing than Assuerio.  (See his brutal knee over the very game Christian Wellisch @ UFC 62 for example).  As long as the line remains above +200, I think Kongo is worth a stab, certainly if it increases even more…