Georges St. Pierre (-800) vs Matt Serra (+500)

I'll make this quick.  Let's compare the two combatants, shall we?

Overall Striking: GSP.

Wrestling & Takedowns: GSP

Submissions & Sub Defense: draw

Ordinarily, I like to stay away from gaudy -800 lines, save when they're Fedor vs 40 year olds who flat out have no submission defense or striking.  I like this one.  I have yet to hear a single legitimate argument that suggests Serra has anything that resembles a prayer.  Matt Hughes couldn't put GSP on his back in UFC 65.  Matt Serra won't be able to either. (Not that GSP is terrible on his back!)

I'd steer clear of this line if you're going for the Hail Mary as well, +500 is nowhere near the payout that would make this shot in the dark worthwhile.  GSP by whatever he wants, and it most certainly will not go the distance.  -800 is an adequate payout and a safe investment if you're betting anything upwards of $100.

Diego Sanchez (-240) vs Josh Koscheck (+190)

I've never been so excited for a TUF matchup.  I sincerely believe that each fighter has outgrown the TUF stigma and can hang with ANY fighter at 170 not named GSP.  As far as this fight goes, I am completely throwing the exhibition fight during TUF out the window.  Both fighters have improved immensely.  Diego has the experience, the grit, and the scrappiness.  Diego has a stronger finishing game.  Diego has fought tougher opponents and is still unbeaten.  That said, it should come as no surprise that my pick for both the better betting line AND my pick for the fight is: Josh Koscheck!!  I see this fight going to the judges, with Kos controlling the fight from start to finish.  Both fighters have improved their standup, but I don't see the fight being on the feet for very long.  I don't see how Diego can stop Kos' shoot, even though he also comes from a wrestling background.  Josh is too strong and is on another level of wrestling.  I don't think -240 is justifiable for Diego, I really don't.  I think it's closer to a tossup, and I can't get around any scenario aside from Josh smothering and pounding Diego.  All I can say is, Sanchez better train like crazy off of his back, he'll be there for 15 minutes.  My top underdog bet of the night.

Mike Swick (-135) vs Yushin Okami (+105)

Pretty excited for this fight.  Both are game fighters and belong in the ring with just about anyone at 185.  I like both lines.  Okami will rely on getting Swick down and utilizing his GnP that we've seen him do his first 3 UFC bouts (and elsewhere), and if he gets him there, Swick is gonna take a beating the longer he stays on the mat.  Swick, however, is very explosive... I think he has the standup edge, and can push Okami away when Yushin postures up.  Okami can slow things down to a pace that suits him when he has his man down. However, if Swick can stay mobile and if his layoff isn't an issue, it should be the most exciting fight of the night and favor Mike.

I've yet to see Swick be controlled by anyone thus far, but Okami may very be the one to do it.  I can't advise avoiding either line.  I'm going with Swick, but not investing a lot in it.  If Okami's payout increases (which I believe it will), it's certainly worth a flier.

Heath Herring (-260) vs Brad Imes (+200)

The Heath Herring we saw against Jake O'Brien was NOT the Heath Herring we all know and love.  However, he's also not the Heath Herring who screamed like a madman after finally escaping Tom Erikson's grasp and consequently flattened him on the canvas and choked him out.  He had a bum knee against O'Brien, really hampered his TD defense.  That won't be an issue in this slugfest, where he goes up against Imes.  Heath's last notable win was...Igor Vovchanchyn on 2/24/02?  Ok, that may be pushing it, but I don't think he justifies a -260 line (much less -415 /cough), even against a sluggish Imes.  Imes on the other hand can't show Herring anything he hasn't seen before, and is 0-2 himself in the octagon.  I don't see a strong line with either fighter, unless we see the old Texas Crazy Horse come back.