Dream 13 Analysis
by Frank Redzepi

Share

Dream 13
March 22
Live on HDNet

Bibiano Fernandes +115 vs. Joachim Hansen -145

Hansen will finally make his featherweight debut and will fight for the title right out of the gate. This is the weight class Hansen should've been for a long time, but there were always more opportunities at 155, so that's where he fought. Not only that, but he was also very competitive at 155 for most of his career. It wasn't long ago that he was winning by the DREAM LWGP by finishing Aoki. Hansen is a guy who has only really lost to the elite fighters in MMA. Losing to guys like Aoki, Alvarez, Sakurai, and Shaolin is nothing to be ashamed of. The only guys to actually finish Hansen are Aoki and Shaolin, and those are two of the best grapplers in the world. Eddie Alvarez couldn't finish Hansen, even after giving him a pretty good beating over 15 minutes. Hansen is about as tough as they come, and that toughness should only be magnified at a lower weight class. I don't see the cute being much of an issue for Hansen, he only weighed in at around 150 for his last fight. I believe DREAM's FW division is 139 pounds instead of 145, so he will have to shed a few more pounds than usual, but I still believe this to be an advantage. he will have size on someone for the first time in his career, and for someone who has dealt with size so well throughout his career, that's a pretty big deal. Bibiano will need to get the takedown in this fight to win it, and you have to wonder if he can land it on a guy who will finally have the physical edge in a fight. Hansen is used to dealing with guys like Eddie Alvarez, a guy who is a big and strong wrestler. Bibiano should present much less of a takedown threat and I'm also not sure Bibiano can submit Hansen. Hansen has only been submitted by Aoki and Shaolin as mentioned earlier, and I'm not completely sure if Bibiano has shown to be on that level in MMA. He submitted a very green Joe Warren and hasn't submitted many other people of note, so I believe this fight is a question of who can control where the fight goes. Hansen has to keep it standing and Bibiano needs the takedown and control on the ground to win.

Bibiano needs the takedown in this fight to win, but he hasn't always gone after the takedown as much as he should in fights. When he fought Takaya in the FWGP final, he barely went for any takedowns at all. Not only that, but Bibiano was the much fresher fighter heading into the final match. Bibiano had a 42 second armbar over Joe Warren, while Takaya had a hard fought fight that went into the second round against Tokoro. Bibiano should've been able to take advantage of that, but he barely went for takedowns, and when he did go for them, he couldn't keep Takaya down. I actually believe Bibiano should've lost that fight because it seemed he got outstruck, but it was a close one. I do expect this fight with Hansen to look pretty similar if it does stay on the feet. If Bibiano tries to stand and trade, he will probably get the worse of it. Hansen isn't exactly the most technical guy in the world on the feet, but he throws hard and never stops attacking. Bibiano seemed to gas much quicker and harder against Takaya even though he had an easier first fight, so I expect him to probably wear out a bit if Hansen puts the pressure on him like he usually does. The only problem with Hansen's aggressiveness on the feet is that it does cost him getting taken down a lot, but as we saw in his third fight with Aoki, he was able to stay out of trouble on bottom for the most part and he even ended up on top a few times, where he was able to control the fight. I really don't see Bibiano bring the type of aggressive attack off his back like Aoki brings to the table, so I expect Hansen to be pretty safe on top. Hansen is also known for his knee attack, where he always catches the guy with a knee when he shoots in and knocks them out. I honestly wouldn't be too surprised if we saw Hansen land one of those and potentially end the fight, but I'm thinking this fight goes to decision either way. Bibiano has shown a solid chin and toughness in most of his fights, and Hansen is about as tough as they come. I think it would take a submission out of nowhere to finish the fight, and I don't really expect that to happen either. I think if Hansen plays this one smart and doesn't give up takedowns, it's his fight. He has the physical advantages this time and I think he has the type of skills on the feet to beat Bibiano up a bit and go home with a decision, and one more DREAM title. I believe Hansen can be a serious threat at featherweight.

Joachim Hansen wins by Unanimous Decision

Andre Dida +175 vs. KJ Noons -225

I actually believe Dida has a much better chance than some have given him and I think there's definitely potential for an upset here. Dida has had a few K-1 fights and has looked pretty good in them. He was able to finish off Remigijus Morkevicius with strikes under K-1 rules in only a round, and he also went four rounds with Buakaw under K-1 Max rules, where he even dropped him in the first round. Buakaw is one of the best guys in K-1 max, so I think that says a lot. I wouldn't go ahead and say that Dida is on the technical level of the top K-1 Max fighters, but he's definitely a very good kickboxer in his own right. Dida might not ever be a K-1 Max champion, but that doesn't mean his striking isn't above average in MMA. It's the same situation with KJ Noons. KJ really wasn't able to do much of anything in boxing and he didn't really fight anyone of note, but he probably is still an above average striker in MMA. I would have zero problem picking Dida in this fight if I didn't see his last performance against Kikuno. Kikuno seemed wide open for Dida's striking game and for some reason Dida didn't attack. He almost seemed confused by how crazy Kikuno's stance looked, and once Kikuno was able to take him down...that was basically the end of the fight. I don't see that really being a problem in a fight with Noons, though. I doubt we'll be seeing KJ take Dida down and I doubt we'll see Dida take Noons down. This will be a fight that is most likely completely decided on the feet, and I think Dida might have some advantages there. I think Dida probably has a bit more of a versatile striking game, the type of striking game where we see kicks and knees in the mix. Noons has some nice kicks too, but he's usually just throwing hands. I also think Dida can take a better punch than Noons. I still can't ignore how Noons got put to sleep by Krazy Horse. Krazy Horse does have power so it doesn't mean Noons has a bad chin or anything like that, but if a guy who doesn't train can manage to land a big overhand right like that on Noons, then I think Dida is capable of doing the same. I really think this is a pretty even fight if you really look at it. I think Noons is getting some extra love because he has had some higher profile wins and he's a bit more known, and Dida has also gone on a bit of a losing streak, but those losses are all to good guys. You also have to wonder how Noons will handle the layoff from MMA and coming back to fight in Japan. It isn't just the layoff, but he has to come back and fight in an unfamiliar setting, a setting that Dida is accustomed to. I think both guys can put the other out, but I think Dida has the weapons to pull off the upset. I wouldn't be surprised to see him knock KJ out, but a decision wouldn't surprise me either.

Andre Dida wins by Second Round KO/TKO

Josh Barnett -1200 vs. Mighty Mo +660

This is really just a warm up fight for Barnett. Mighty Mo really doesn't present any more problems to Josh than Mark Hunt did when they fought. Mighty Mo's only real chance of winning this fight is if he can clip Josh with a huge shot. He has the punchers chance, but that's the only chance he really has. Barnett is competent enough on the feet to hold his own, and his takedown and submission game is far better than Mighty Mo's. Mighty Mo is just a kickboxer who hits hard and can take a solid shot. He was never known as much of a technical guy or a finesse guy, you just need to watch his power. If Josh goes in and plants him on his back, just as he should, it will be a very quick and easy win for Josh. You also have to take into consideration that Mighty Mo is taking this fight on pretty short notice. Barnett is also taking in on a bit of short notice, but he's known for quite a bit that he'd be fighting on this card, he just didn't have a definitive opponent. I read that Mighty Mo actually was training for a different fight, but I can guarantee he wasn't preparing for anyone on Barnett's level. Say what you want about Barnett, but the guy has the skills to be top five on a consistent basis if he keeps busy. There's a lot of hate going around for Barnett due to his failed drug test, and most of it is deserved hate, but his skills as a fighter can't be overlooked. This is about as easy of a matchup you can give to someone like Barnett. Unless Mighty Mo comes out and displays some ridiculous sprawl that we've never seen, we'll most likely see him tapping in under three minutes. The only other concern is if Josh tries to get cute and tries to stand, which could end badly for him. Barnett has a solid chin, but why even risk it? Barnett gets to the clinch early in this one, followed by the takedown, and then we'll see a submission. Maybe we'll see a nice leg lock or something.

Josh Barnett wins by First Round Submission.

Kuniyoshi Hironaka -215 vs. Katsunori Kikuno +175

Kikuno seems to always put on pretty solid performances, but for some reason I just can't get behind him. I'm waiting for someone to come in and take care of him on the feet because he looks so wide open and awkward, but it has yet to happen. I do think that Kikuno will have problems with guys who are more well-rounded than him though. When he fought Dida, he was able to take him down and expose the huge holes Dida has in his ground game. I don't see him being able to do the same type of thing to Hironaka in their upcoming fight. Hironaka is most likely better on the ground and I expect him to take advantage of that in this fight. The only worry I really have with Hironaka is that he gets into unnecessary slug fests at times. He chose to bang it out with Goulet when he seemingly had a ground advantage, which ended up backfiring. I guess he figured all he had to do was land once on Goulet's chin and it'd be over, but it didn't quite go that way. He also kind of just stood in front of Thiago Alves for awhile without attempting many takedown attempts, and that was another case where the fight didn't really end all that well for him. Hironaka has looked a lot better ever since he has moved down to 155 and has yet to lose, so I expect that streak to continue here. I think he will actually use his advantages a bit more this time and take Kikuno down when the chance presents itself. I also don't believe Kikuno has the finishing ability of someone like a Thiago Alves or the finishing power of welterweights in general. Hironaka was able to deal with a lot of guys at 170 pretty well, so dealing with Kikuno at 155 shouldn't be much of a problem, as far as absorbing strikes goes anyway. I just don't see Kikuno taking Hironaka down, taking his back, and pounding him out like he did with Dida. I think Kikuno is a guy who can look good against guys who are limited in what they can do, but he'll struggle against guys who are well-rounded. Hironaka really doesn't have any huge glaring holes in his MMA game. The only real hole in his game is fighting smart, and I believe he has done that as of late. If Hironaka fights his fight, he should take the decision by controlling the fight in the clinch or on the ground, and striking from both positions.

Kuniyoshi Hironaka wins by Unanimous Decision

Ryo Chonan -110 vs. Andrews Nakahara -120

This is actually one of the tougher fights on the card for me to pick a winner in. I was originally leaning towards Chonan because he's much more experienced and has the more well-rounded game, but I'm having second thoughts. Chonan stopped getting better as a fighter a long time ago. The Chonan that fought last time is the same guy who fought four years ago in my eyes. Nakahara is new to the game, but he seems to get better every time and this all seems very natural to me. He even looked halfway decent against Sakuraba in his first MMA fight ever, then he went on to beat Dong Sik Yoon, which is pretty impressive in my eyes. Yoon doesn't have the best record out there, but he'll give most guys a tough fight at least. Nakahara was able to stop most of his takedowns and stay out of trouble on the ground, and then land his strikes and end the fight. Nakahara has very good kicks, very accurate kicks. I can see him landing his kicks on Chonan and frustrating him a bit. Chonan has never been a great takedown guy and Nakahara showed some ability to stop takedowns against Yoon and Oyama, and I'm sure his takedown defense has only gotten better since then. Plus Chonan isn't much of a finisher on the mat either. He usually just takes guys down and tries to stay on top, that's why all of his fights end up being close decisions. Chonan just isn't a big finisher as of late and I don't see him being able to finish Nakahara in this fight. I wouldn't be surprised if this ended up being another close decision for Chonan, but I see Chonan being on the wrong end of it once again. Nakahara is only getting better as a mixed martial artist and Chonan seemed to have peaked a long time go. I see Nakahara keeping this fight on the feet and cruising to a decision.

Andrews Nakahara wins by Unanimous Decision

Dream Odds					Comment
Bibi Fernandes	+115	+115		-105
Joachim Hansen	-145	-145		-125
Kat Kikuno	-215	-207		-250
Yoshi Hironaka	+170	+167		+190
Andre Amade	+175	+175		+190
KJ Noons	-225	-215		-250
Andrews Nakahara	-120	-115		-135
Ryo Chonan	-110	-115		+105
Josh Barnett	-1200	-1100		-1400
Siala Siliga	+660	+600		+700
Cole Escovedo	+180	+195		+160
Yoshiro Maeda	-240	-245		-200