UFC on Versus Preview

Jon Jones vs. Brandon Vera

I'm still waiting to see Vera to show us the finishing ability he showed at heavyweight. Did he lose killer instinct or power by moving down to 205? Or is it just the fact that he's facing better competition at 205? heavyweight has always been known as the division with the least amount of truly elite fighters. You couldn't even compare heavyweight to a division like lightweight or welterweight, so I believe that has been part of the issue with Vera's struggles at 205. To be fair, though, I do believe Vera did beat Couture, even if he didn't get the decision when it was all said and done. I still believed that Vera showed many of the same problems in that fight, though. He waits too long and doesn't pull the trigger. He only throws one strike at a time and doesn't really put anything together. He seemed a little too content to just hang out on the fence with Couture, as long as he was able to stay standing. There has to be a point when you have to be willing to take the risk of getting out of a position. Randy wasn't hurting Vera in the clinch, but that's probably what ended up causing Vera the fight in the judges eyes. Vera was just too content to sit their and kind of hang out. We saw when Vera was pulling the trigger, he was hurting Couture. He landed that headkick early on that seemed to hurt Couture and he hurt him with that bodykick as well, and he also landed a late takedown. If Vera could do these things earlier and more often, he could be a much more successful fighter. He seems a bit too afraid of his opponents offense, be it takedowns or strikes. That will be a huge problem against Jones, because Jones is all offense. Jones is a guy who always goes forward and if Vera hasn't figured out how to deal with that, it will be a very bad night for him.

I believe this fight is maybe a bit closer than some have made it seem, but I think you have to favor Jones. As mentioned earlier, Vera just can't pull the trigger when he has to. We all know that Jon Jones has no problem pulling the trigger in any aspect of the game, even if it means breaking the rules sometimes. I think Vera is right in saying that Jones has never been hit and we don't know what will happen when he gets hit, but I'm not entirely sure if Vera is the guy to expose that potential issue. Vera has also said that he's gonna use his guard offensively, that he won't be the guy trying too hard to avoid the takedown because he can depend on his submission skills off his back. I'm also not entirely sure that's the right attitude to have against someone like Jones, because that plays right into Jones' game. Jones wants the takedown and just conceding it is just giving him what he wants. I'm also not entirely sold on the idea that Vera will just be this new and aggressive guy off his back now, like a Demian Maia or something like that. I won't buy into the idea of Vera being able to pull the trigger in any position until I actually see him do it, and we just haven't seen it. Vera can say a lot of things and he's good at talking, but there's a difference between saying and doing. I really don't think anyone has brought in the level of upper-body takedowns that Jones has displayed in MMA, and this is something Vera has struggled with. Vera can stop the takedowns, but we've seen him stuck in the clinch a lot. Randy trapped him there, Reese Andy had him trapped there for a bit, and even Tim Sylvia was able to bully him around a bit. What's gonna happen when he has Jon Jones throwing spinning back elbows at him and trying to toss him on his head? Jones tossed Stephan Bonnar like he was a small child, and he did it continuously. He threw down Matt Hamill like it was nothing, while no one else could even get Hamill down. Mark Munoz is a very good wrestler and Hamill made him look like an amateur, and then Jones made Hamill look like an amateur. I just don't see Vera being able to handle the ultra offense of Jones, and I don't see him being able to handle the wrestling. I believe we'll get a pretty one-sided decision, we might see Vera squeak out one round...but no more than that.

Jon Jones wins by Unanimous Decision

Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Junior dos Santos

This is another fight that is maybe a bit closer than some have made it out to be. Gonzaga really only has himself to blame for being viewed as the underdog, though. If I were to look at this fight from purely a skills view point, I might actually have to give the edge to Gonzaga. He's really a guy who can do it all and he can truly beat anyone in the world if

everything went perfectly for him, but he always has those questions marks with him. Things like his preparation, cardio, and heart have all come into question in the past. We've seen him slow down and gas in many fights, and we've seen him wilt under pressure. We've seen him have the fight completely in his hands, only to be taken away when he got a bit too over-aggressive in an attempt to finish. I'll give him a pass on his fight with Couture when he gassed, because his nose was busted up pretty bad and he did fight with the messed up nose for awhile. In that fight I questioned how he just sat there and absorbed punches, almost like he was looking for a way out. Then the same exact thing happened when he fought Werdum. Werdum had him trapped and started throwing shots, not the hardest shots, but Gonzaga was worn down enough to the point where he really didn't want to be in there anymore. This to me shows that Gonzaga can't really fight against adversity, he can't win when things don't go his way. If he can control the fight, then he has a big shot of winning. When he fought Cro Cop, things basically went his way. He took Cro Cop down and roughed him up a bit, and that built his confidence up. So many people talk about conditioning in MMA when they see someone gas, but it isn't always just about conditioning. It's easy not to gas when things go exactly how you want them to, and it's easy to gas when your plans falls apart and you go into desperation mode. I think Gonzaga has been a perfect example of this many times. We also found out against Carwin that Gonzaga can be knocked out with one big shot. That doesn't mean the guy has a weak chin or anything like that, but Junior has shown the ability to punch hard himself. That's always a danger against a guy who has shown to fall apart when the fight goes a bit deeper.

I believe JDS has displayed a bit of that natural toughness and durability that Gonzaga maybe hasn't displayed. I don't think Junior has had to deal with a ton of adversity either, most of his fights have been quick, but I think the Cro Cop fight showed some of his toughness. He was never once worried to stand in front of Cro Cop and walk him down. A lot of people make that fight out to be like Cro Cop didn't land any strikes, but he landed his fair of strikes, especially with the left straight. Of course we can say Cro Cop maybe isn't as dangerous as he used to be, but I question if Gonzaga could've stalked Cro Cop down for three straight rounds, while taking a bunch of left straights in the process. Striking with Cro Cop over three rounds and beating him to the point where he quits is more impressive than taking Cro Cop down and head-kicking him in some ways. Not as spectacular, but the excuses of octagon familiarity and rule familiarity can't be used anymore, and the fact that Junior beat him solely at his own game is impressive. I think it shows a certain level of toughness to do that in that fashion. There were also zero signs of Junior gassing in that fight, but he was in control the whole time, so it was a bit easier on him. I really don't believe anyone can trade punches with Junior at this point, no one in the UFC can at least. Gonzaga has a bit more of a versatile striking games with his kicks and all that, but he's still pretty hitable on the feet. The other problem with Gonzaga is that he's way too willing to stand up and strike with guys these days. It seems he's forgotten where his true strength lies, which is on the ground. I would hope that Gonzaga would look for the takedown in this fight, since he has such a clear advantage, but there's never a guarantee with a guy like Gonzaga. He has proven to be very inconsistent throughout his career. Junior isn't exactly that easy to takedown even if Gonzaga approached it that way. Werdum is a guy who has a very underrated takedown game, and he didn't really come close to completing a takedown. People keep questioning if Junior can hang on the ground with Gonzaga, but I think they're ignoring if Gonzaga can even take him down and keep him there. Having said all that, I'm not even sure if Gonzaga will try a takedown. He says he won't, but I hope he's lying. I just can't trust Gonzaga, he's been way too inconsistent over the last few fights. Gonzaga has proven he can beat guys that are well below him skill wise, but he hasn't proven he can beat the elite yet. I think Junior is elite.

Junior dos Santos wins by First Round KO/TKO

Cheick Kongo vs. Paul Buentello

I really don't see this being the fight people expect to see. It seems most people expect to see some crazy striking battle that's all on the feet, but I'm really not sure that's what we're gonna see. People always seem to forget that Kongo does have a good offensive wrestling game and some good ground and pound. I think people tend to forget that because his defensive wrestling is so bad and he has questionable sub defense, but he's actually good with his takedowns offensively and he can hurt you with punches on the ground. That's what made the difference for me when I chose him to beat Hardonk. It seemed to be a close striking match on paper, but I kind of expected Kongo to take him down and use his ground and pound to give himself the edge. I expect the same situation here. Buentello doesn't really have good takedown defense, especially in the clinch, and his ground game is pretty bad. Buentello got completely manhandled in the clinch by Overeem, and then Overeem basically controlled him at will when he did take him down. I expect the same type of deal in this fight. Kongo is good in the clinch, both with takedowns and striking. I think we'll see Kongo get the fight into the clinch, then we'll see him beat up and soften Buentello up with some knees to the body, which will then be followed by the takedown, and that will be followed by ground and pound. We also can't forget how badly Buentello gassed out last time against Struve, and that will be even more of an issue if Kongo is attacking the body early on. Kongo has shown to be good with knees in the clinch in his fight with Cro Cop, so I expect him to be able to do the same against Buentello. We also can't forget that this fight will be at altitude, which would seem to be a bad thing for someone like Buentello. Buentello is training at the same camp as Schaub and Carwin now, which is in Colorado, but I still do question Buentello's conditioning a bit. It's a case of where I'll believe his conditioning is good when he shows me it's good. Until then....you can never be sure. The only way Buentello can win this fight is if he can turn it into a boxing match, where he can stay out of the clinch and off the ground. I believe Buentello has slightly better hands, but I still wouldn't be surprised if Buentello got clipped and knocked out in that situation. I think Kongo has more advantages in this fight and I expect him to use them.

Cheick Kongo wins by Second Round KO/TKO

Eliot Marshall vs. Vladimir Matyushenko

I actually think Vladdy takes this one without too much of an issue. I think the argument could be made that Marshall lost his last fight against Jason Brilz, but most people seemed to be fine with the decision. Neither guy had very much offense at all in the fight. It was really a case where Eliot seemed to be terrified of being taken down, so he just sat back and did everything he could to stop from being taken down, at the same time, it seemed like Brilz only wanted to take him down but could never really complete it. So in that case it's a question of who did more and who tried to really finish the fight, which turned out to be neither. I don't expect Vladdy to have the same type of problems in completing the takedown. I think Vladdy is most likely a better wrestler than Brilz, and not only that, but he's a bit more willing to throw some punches. He was willing to throw down with Pokrajac a bit when they fought and I think he'll have a bit of that going in against Marshall. He was also willing to throw hands with Rogerio Nogueira, and he even seemed to hurt him at a point. I think Vladdy could actually catch Eliot off guard with his striking because Eliot will be anticipating the takedown a bit too much, just like he did with Brilz. If Vladdy does manage to crack him on the feet a few times, then that will open up the takedowns a bit more, and I don't see Eliot catching Vladdy off of his back. Vladdy has fought some of the best guys in the world and has never been submitted. He fought Rogerio Nogueira twice and got out of it without being submitted. Vladdy has really only lost to a few elite guys. Losing to Nogueira, Arlovski, and Tito in his prime is not a bad list of losses. I actually think this is a bit of a step up for Marshall and I'm really not sure he's ready for it. I honestly believe that the argument that Marshall lost both his UFC fights can be made. A guy like Vladdy is good at winning decisions and that's exactly what I see happening here. Marshall has gotten away with being overly defensive and escaping with a decision, but I don't see that happening here. I think this will be the type of fight where a single strike or takedown can make a difference in a round, and I see Vladdy being the guy to land those takedowns or strikes.

Vladimir Matyushenko wins by Unanimous Decision

Alessio Sakara vs. James Irvin

This fight really seems to be a toss up. Both guys have really been hit and miss and there's also a lot of questions in this fight. The biggest question is how will James Irvin do at 185? He hasn't fought in a very long time and you have to question if he's been shedding the weight off the right way. This could very well be the type of fight where it's better to pick a winner after you see the weigh ins. I think this cut will hurt Irvin more than it helps, but we'll see. I'm not sure that he was losing at 205 because of size issues, but once again, we'll see. I think Sakara has a lot of advantages in this fight, but he's the type of guys who falls apart when he gets hit. He was destroying Leben early on, then he got clipped and it was all over. It was a similar situation with McFedries. He looked alright early, then he got hit and fell apart. These guys were big punchers so you can't blame him for going down, but Irvin is another guy who is a big puncher. Sakara showed a bit of a different style in his last fight against Thales Leites, though. He didn't really push the fight at any point and he almost seemed to avoid the fight, but that got him the win. I really do believe that Sakara is the more skilled fighter in all areas in this fight. He has better striking and better ground skills, but I'm still worried that he could take one punch and get knocked out. James Irvin always has the chance in a fight. I think Sakara will be a bit smarter about it this time around, though. He fought smarter against Leites, but maybe a bit too smart, to the point where he was being way too passive. If he can fight aggressively but controlled, I think he can cruise to a decision in this one. I also wouldn't be too surprised if we saw Sakara try for a takedown and just take Irvin's only winning weapon completely out of the equation, which is him landing a big strike. Irvin has never shown amazing ground skills and Sakara is decent there. I also have problems picking a guy who is coming off a layoff and also dropping a weight class. Not only is Irvin coming off a long layoff, but he's coming off a layoff because he was addicted to pain killers. Hearing that is a bit worrying and you have to wonder where he's really at in his fight career at this point. I think Sakara will just outpoint Irvin over three rounds, on the feet and on the ground.

Alessio Sakara wins by Unanimous Decision