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UFC 109 Analysis
Randy Couture -380 vs. Mark Coleman +340
The fight we were supposed to see 10 years ago is finally here. Back
in the day, Coleman most likely would have been the the favorite over
Randy Couture. Coleman was the man back then, he was the champ and he
was the guy with all the hype behind him. Times have definitely changed
since then, however. Now Couture is a pretty sizable favorite and Coleman
is the guy who has supposedly never had a ground game or a gas tank.
Couture is the lovable old man and Coleman doesn't quite have the same
type of love or respect from the fans. Coleman has been written off a
lot in the past few years for his losses, but you really can't hold those
losses against him. You really can't say a guy has no ground game if
he gets submitted by Nogueira and Fedor. All that means is that he got
submitted by Fedor And Nogueira, two guys who have very good submission
skills. You can't say a guy has no striking if he get handled by Cro
Cop, because Cro Cop is one of the best. The second fight with Shogun
was a bit of a slopfest by both guys, but Coleman did manager to give
Shogun some problems and he stayed in the fight against one of the best
guys out there. Both guys have looked a lot better since, so we'll see
what happens. Everyone wrote Coleman off against Bonnar too, but I thought
Coleman would be able to do exactly what he did in that fight. If you
don't have takedown defense and aren't aggressive off your back, then
Coleman has a very good shot at beating you. We'll see if Coleman can
put Couture on his back. I can say one thing for sure, and that's that
Couture has much better wrestling than Stephan Bonnar.
It was mentioned how Coleman has been criticized for not looking amazing
in certain fights, but the same can be said for Couture as of late. Randy
has been dropped at least once in his last three fights. Brock dropped
him and finished him with a punch, Nogueira dropped him twice and came
close to finishing, and Vera dropped him with a body kick. I also believe
that Vera had Randy hurt very early in the fight, and that's also a fight
that I thought Couture lost. So now you have to start questioning if
Randy is beginning to fade a bit. He was always known as the guy with
a solid chin. He got knocked out by Chuck, but no one can hold that against
him. The punch that Brock clipped Randy with never looked like a huge
punch to me, but Brock seems to have power and it hit a good spot. Then
you have guys like Nogueira and Vera putting Randy down, and neither
guy has shown outstanding power throughout their careers. Vera has had
some knockouts on his resume as of late, but ever since he moved to 205,
he just hasn't shown the ability to really hurt people...except Mike
Patt. Randy was basically forced to do nothing but hold Vera against
the fence in that fight. He couldn't take Vera down and he really couldn't
put his dirty boxing to any real use. Coleman has never been the most
technical fighter, he's never had the prettiest fighting style, but he's
looked exactly the same in all his fights. The guy who fought Bonnar
looked like the guy who fought back in PRIDE to me. I'm not so sure I
can confidently say Randy is the same guy that we saw fight in the UFC
when he was beating Chuck and Tito, or when he was beating Sylvia and
Gonzaga. So I think that could be something that could be getting overlooked
in this fight. Randy has kept a bit more of a busier schedule over the
years, while Coleman has had some breaks in his career. To me, it just
never seemed like Randy found his groove when he returned to the UFC
to fight Brock.
Having said all that, I still believe this to be a very tough fight
for Coleman. I wouldn't call Shogun a guy with great takedown defense
and he managed to stop a few of Mark's takedowns. The argument could
be made that Coleman was too gassed to do much, but so was Shogun. Plus,
Coleman pretty much gasses all the time. He says his new training will
push him to a new level, but who really knows? We won't know until we
see it. I would say Coleman's conditioning looked a little bit better
against Bonnar, but he still didn't look great. Either way, Couture will
most definitely have the conditioning edge. He went three hard rounds
with Nogueira and Vera, and I'm really not sure if Coleman could do that.
If a guy like Shogun can stop a takedown, a guy who isn't terribly worried
about being put on his back, then Couture should be able to stop it.
Coleman doesn't really set his takedowns up all that well and he shoots
from really far away. As mentioned earlier, you can't hold what Fedor
and Cro Cop did against Coleman too much, but just look at how easily
they sprawled out on him. Everytime Coleman shot in you could see it
coming from a mile away, that type of thing wont work against Randy.
If Coleman does manage to actually get a good hold of you, he will probably
take you down, which Randy doesn't wasn't. Coleman probably won't be
able to do much on top, but if he can stay on top for three minutes in
two rounds, he'll most likely take a decision. I don't see Randy throwing
up any armbars or triangles off his back, and even if he did, I doubt
he would catch Coleman. Coleman has only been submitted by the best and
I don't really think Randy has that skill-set to finish off his back.
If Coleman can't get the takedown he'll be forced to stand, and I think
Randy still has the edge there. Randy is known as the master of the clinch
and tiring guys out inside of the clinch, but I really think he should
avoid that aspect of the game in this fight. If he lets Coleman get a
hold of him, he's just giving him the chance to get the takedown. Randy
would be better suited to just keep his distance and try to box with
Coleman I think. Coleman has said he wants to display his striking, but
he always shoots when it comes down to it and Randy should just do everything
he can stay out of that game.
I said Randy has the striking edge, but I don't see him being able to
finish Coleman with strikes. I actually think it's a bit more likely
that Coleman would finish with strikes if by some chance this were to
end in that fashion, but I really see this going to decision either way.
Randy probably has better finishing ability than Coleman does, but I
just have to question Randy's ability to take a shot these days. I think
Coleman can still take a good shot. I actually think overall that this
fight should be viewed as being much closer than the fans and oddsmakers
have made it out to be. Coleman has beaten Randy in the world of wrestling
back in the day, so if he can take him down then, then it isn't completely
impossible to take him down now. This is obviously a lot different than
wrestling and you have to be able to set your shot up, which Coleman
isn't great at doing, but he only needs one takedown per round to take
it. For that reason alone I would say Coleman has a decent shot. You
still have to favor Randy though, just not as much as the odds suggest.
You could really say that Randy has lost his last three fights. Would
Coleman look that much worse against Vera than Couture did? I'm not so
sure...I think it could actually look very similar. I'll take Randy because
of the striking advantage he should have, and because he always comes
in shape, but Coleman shouldn't be written off. He's a tough guy who
can put you on your back, and that's always a dangerous combination in
a fight, especially in the world of MMA where the judges seem to favor
takedowns and control over damage done. I have Randy by decision in this
one, but I see this being pretty competitive and wouldn't be too surprised
to see Coleman pull something out. I just see Randy being able to sprawl
enough and land enough punches to win the fight.
Randy Couture wins by Unanimous Decision
Chael Sonnen +345 vs. Nate Marquardt -375
 Chael Sonnen has proven a lot of people wrong in his last two fights.
I almost wanted to pick him against both Dan Miller and Yushin Okami,
but I backed out of it. Sonnen has had a lot of people go against him
because he has shown a lot of inconsistencies in his career, especially
against guys who had sub skills. I have problems picking a guy who has
shown that type of holes in his game over the years, but Sonnen is slowly
beginning to prove that he can stop people from submitting him. He has
shown that he can take these good sub guys down, control them, ground
and pound them, and not get submitted in the process. That obviously
didn't work when he fought world class guys like Demian Maia, but even
against Filho he showed the ability to stifle sub attempts. Marquardt
is a completely different type of animal, though. Miller is a guy who
wants to take you down and submit you and Okami is a guy who wants to
take you down and beat you up. Marquardt can do both of those things,
but he can also knock your head off on the feet. I'm actually really
interested to see how Sonnen deals with Marquardt, because it really
does seem like he always gets matched up with guys who want to take him
down or submit him. I don't really remember seeing someone strictly try
to strike with Sonnen, I don't even remember ever really seeing Sonnen
hurt on the feet. Sonnen almost always got matched up with the grapplers,
and he always had mixed results with them. We'll see how he'll handle
a guy who will most likely try and do more striking with him, but Marquardt
can also do everything else. It's hard to find a guy as well as well-rounded
as Marquardt in the world of MMA, especially at middleweight.
Marquardt seems to have almost every edge in this fight, but there are
a few things that concern me. What happens if Sonnen does manage to put
Marquardt on his back? Will Nate be able to sub him off his back? I'm
not so sure if he can catch him off his back. I think if Nate gets on
top he can probably finish the back, but not off his back. We haven't
seen Nate pull much of his back and that's because we don't see him there
very much, so it isn't impossible to think that he has the skills to
potentially pull something off in that position, but it's probably more
likely that we don't see Nate in that position very much in this fight.
Sonnen's a very good wrestler but Nate isn't bad in his own right, and
he's one of the bigger and stronger guys at 185. I think Nate should
be able to stop most of the takedowns and kind of put Sonnen into desperation
mode. Sonnen won't like the fact that he'll be forced to stand in this
fight, which will make him tire quicker and make him make more mistakes
than he normally does. I think that's one of the real main reasons why
Sonnen gets caught so much; he panics a bit when he isn't in a position
he likes, and he gets caught because of it. I think Nate will be able
to make Sonnen make a lot of mistakes in this fight. Sonnen already doesn't
have much striking to speak of at this point, not only that, but he doesn't
have too much power in his hands either. If Sonnen is forced to stand,
he won't sit there and trade shots, he'll go in and shoot over and over
again with sloppy shots. He'll leave something exposed and get caught.
Jeremy Horn is known to be a good submission fighter and he left his
neck hanging out for Marquardt, and Nate took it and finished the fight.
If Horn can make that type of mistake, I could easily see Sonnen making
that same mistake when he sees his gameplan isn't working. Sonnen's only
real way of winning this fight is by taking Marquardt down for three
rounds straight and grinding out a decision. Marquardt has the ability
to finish him in many ways, and that should be the difference.
Sonnen managed to fight the perfect fight against Okami. I figured Okami
might be able to catch Sonnen, even if Sonnen got on top, but that obviously
didn't happen. That was probably the best performance of Sonnen's career,
but you also have to question if Okami was completely there for that
fight. It was his first fight back after an injury and a long layoff,
so you really don't know how a guy will respond to that type of layoff.
Okami was also never known to be that dangerous off his back and he was
never known as a great finisher, so him being put on his back against
Sonnen is basically worst case scenario. That was a very good win for
Sonnen, but Marquardt has many more tools to finish the fight. He can
knock Sonnen out, he can submit him, he could even decision him. I've
picked Sonnen to lose his last two fights by submission and I think I'll
go down that road again. It's very unlikely to be wrong three times in
a row. I just see Marquardt having the power to make Sonnen completely
uncomfortable on the feet, it's something Sonnen really hasn't had to
deal with, and that will lead to mistakes as mentioned earlier. It will
lead to sloppy takedown attempts, which will lead to Sonnen leaving something
exposed. I see Marquardt grabbing a guillotine in this one. He showed
a brutal one against Horn and something like that will finish Sonnen.
Sonnen is a guy who is quick to tap if you catch him in something. He
just won't have an answer for Marquardt's all around game, which will
be his down fall. I do believe Sonnen has a decent shot in this one.
He has proven a lot of people wrong in his last two fights and he could
do it again, but it's just hard to pick against Marquardt these days.
Nate Marquardt wins by Third Round Submission
Matt Serra -135 vs. Frank Trigg +125
This has actually been one of the tougher fights for me to pick. On
one hand you have Serra, who definitely isn't afraid to strike and he
has the power to knock you out. Trigg has some good boxing and a decent
chin, but he's pretty slow and doesn't really have much defense striking
wise. He's very hit-able and if Serra connects, it could be game over.
On the other hand, Serra can be taken down by guys and Trigg is a good
wrestler. Most people will crack a Trigg joke and say he has no ground
game or whatever, but Serra has never really been the best submission
guy in MMA. He has never submitted a top level fighter, so I question
if he could actually catch Trigg in a submission.
The way I look at it,
Trigg will win by decision or Serra will knock him out. Serra was a
bit too content to sit around and hang out on his back when he fought
Hughes,
which possibly cost him the fight. He waited for the standup instead
of working to better his position. He can't do that type of thing with
Trigg. Serra is right in saying that he was kind of the bully in the
Hughes fight. Hughes never looked completely comfortable and was worried
about the striking, but that doesn't win fights. All that matters is
that Hughes did get takedowns, which mean he scored some points. Serra
has to do more than just look like he's the aggressor who's not being
hurt. Even if he gets put on his back and Trigg does nothing, that
still means Trigg has managed to score some points. I really think Serra
just
needs to completely ignore the ground game in this fight. Some guys
who are good on the ground feel like they don't have to worry about being
taken down because they have submission skills, but you have to really
work for those submissions.
If this turns into a points game, then
the
guy on top is probably going to win. Serra needs to turn this into
a striking battle. That isn't a place where Trigg is completely outmatched,
but I think Serra is a bit more comfortable there and he has the
power to end it. All along I was leaning towards Trigg taking the decision,
but I keep getting this feeling that Serra lands the punch he needs
to
land to win the fight. Trigg stands more than he needs to sometimes
and I think that'll cost him the fight. Serra has the power to end
it
and
I see him landing that punch late in the fight. Matt Serra wins by Third Round KO/TKO
Demian Maia -350 vs. Dan Miller -318
This is basically a nightmare matchup for Dan Miller. I really don't
see how he can win this fight. The argument could be made that Dan is
the better striker in this fight, but he has never really won a fight
in the UFC with just striking alone. He hasn't shown insane amounts of
power or anything like that. Maia lost his last fight to Marquardt by
knockout, but that punch was huge and Maia was still somewhat aware of
what was going on. I don't see Miller delivering that type of punch on
Maia. I honestly wouldn't be too surprised if Maia was able to surprise
Miller with his striking. He had some decent kicks before and now he's
been working on his hands more, it could be a surprise to Miller.
Miller
is a wrestler and a submission guy first, except Maia is a better submission
guy and he arguably has better takedowns. You really won't find a better
sub guy in MMA than Maia, he's about as good as it gets. Miller will
try to keep this fight standing and turn it into a striking match,
but it won't stay there for long. If Maia can go and toss Sonnen, then
he
can toss Miller. If by some chance he can't take Miller down, he'll
just pull him into half guard and sweep him, which is something Maia
does
all the time. Miller is a black belt himself, but it's just a completely
different level. It would be an accomplishment if Dan made it to a
decision against Maia in this fight if it did hit the ground. I just
don't see
things going well for Miller at all in this one. He couldn't get Sonnen
off of him when Sonnen got on top, what's he gonna do if Maia is on
top of him and actually passing his guard? Even Matt Horwich had his
moments
against Dan in a fight that was spent mostly on the ground, what happens
when Maia is in that position? It's just a completely different type
of fighter that he's dealing with on the ground. I really don't see
Dan Miller being the guy to stop Maia's attack. Marquardt had the punching
power and wrestling to make a dangerous fight for Maia, Miller doesn't.
I think Maia will be able to submit Miller in this one, and if he doesn't,
he'll take the decision at the very least. Demian Maia wins by Second Round Submission | |
