Strikeforce Betting Preview

 

Luke Rockhold (8-1-0) vs. Keith Jardine (16-10-2)

Betting Line: Rockhold -550, Jardine +350

In the Strikeforce middleweight championship bout Saturday night in Las Vegas, Luke Rockhold takes on challenger Keith Jardine.

Rockhold won the title in his most recent fight, an exciting unanimous decision over Ronaldo Souza in September. He has won his past seven fights, five of which have come on submissions, the crux of his attacking style. Although Jardine earned a draw in his Strikeforce debut his last time out to Gegard Mousasi, this fight will be a new test for him as he makes his middleweight debut. But, his recent performances have given no indications he has any chance against such a dominant foe.

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Rockhold (8-1-0) is one of the best middleweights in the world and brings a submission-based game to the table that is unrivaled in the sport. But, he supplements those tactics with strong striking skills based in kickboxing and Jiu-Jitsu. Although he was not able to end the bout early against Souza, he easily controlled that fight throughout and should be able to do the same against an even less-talented opponent in Jardine. His freestyle strategy should give him another easy route to victory in a fight that may not take very long to be put under wraps.

At 36 years old, Jardine (16-10-2) is not the fighter he once was, which was nothing too special to start off with. He has a draw and two wins in his past three bouts, but before that, he lost five in a row against strong opponents. But, the fact that he could not pull out any wins in those five matches – which included bouts against Quinton “Rampage” Jackson, Thiago Silva, and Matt Hamill – is not encouraging in making him a play for an upset. He seemingly does not have a chance against the dominant Rockhold.

Mo Lawal (8-1-0) vs. Lorenz Larkin (12-0-0)

Betting Line: Lawal -600, Larkin +400

In a test of two American fighters, Muhammed “King Mo” Lawal takes on undefeated up-and-comer Lorenz Larkin. This fight has a lot on the line, with a potential spot in the Strikeforce light heavyweight championship up for grabs, due to Dan Henderson’s vacation of the title since his move to UFC.

Larkin has been dominant at the start of his MMA career, going undefeated in his first 12 bouts, but there is no question that has been against easier competition. His past three fights were with Strikeforce, though, and should have given him a taste of what Lawal can bring to the table. Lawal is 3-1 in Strikeforce, but it has been against a higher class of opponents, and he brings a notable win over Gegard Mousasi to the table. Although Lawal has great knockout power, Larkin has shown the ability to outlast his foes, winning his past two Strikeforce fights by decision.

Lawal (8-1) has won six of his eight career fights by knockout, a true sign of his power. The former wrestling champion executes those moves beautifully in the arena and supplements it with a boxing power that gives his opponents all sorts of trouble. The key for him will be effectively incorporating his boxing early, because if he cannot earn a knockout, he will have difficulties winning this fight.

The undefeated Larkin (12-0) is also a strong striker, relying on an unusual Kung Fu fighting style to keep his opponents at bay. Like Lawal, he supplements it with boxing that also makes him a strong knockout fighter; eight of his 12 career wins have come via knockout. Still, his most recent Strikeforce wins have both been by decision, a strong signal from the 25-year-old that he can adapt his game to a higher level and not need to knock out a weaker opponent to earn the victory. He should be able to outlast and consistently outfight Lawal in this bout, so play on him here.

Robbie Lawler (18-8-0) vs. Adlan Amagov (9-1-1)

Betting Line: Lawler -160, Amagov +130

Robbie Lawler and Adlan Amagov fight on Saturday’s Rockhold-Jardine card for Strikeforce in a battle between a fighter looking to rebound and another looking to make a name for himself.

Lawler is a top competitor for Strikeforce, competing for the middleweight championship earlier this year in a loss via submission to Ronaldo Souza. He fractured his foot in that fight, returning almost exactly six months later in a loss to Tim Kennedy. It seems as if he rushed back from his injury for that fight, because he did not perform at his typical high level. Lawler is still a top competitor in this division for Strikeforce and his aggressive boxing and wrestling techniques should be able to overcome the striking and grappling style of Amagov, who despite his strong record, has yet to really face a quality foe. Lawler is a significantly superior fighter but the lines are tempered because of his two-fight losing streak.

Lawler (18-8-0) likes to end fights early when he gets the chance. Fifteen of his 18 career wins have come by knockouts, with his last two victories coming in the first round. His combination of boxing and submission wrestling makes him a dangerous weapon, something that a less-experience opponent such as Amagov may not realistically be able to handle. Unquestionably more talented and experienced, Lawler is the play here.

Amagov (9-1-1) competed primarily in Russia before moving to the United States, where he has fought his past two bouts for Strikeforce. Both of those were wins, a split decision and a knockout over Anthony Smith. But those opponents are nothing compared to the skill Lawler has shown in his career. If Amagov can pull out this victory, he would definitely make a name for himself in Strikeforce, but he is too unproven for bettors to make him the play in this fight.