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UFC 79 on December 31 MMA fans will be treated to the third installment
in the St. Pierre/Hughes trilogy. This trilogy has the potential to be
remembered as the greatest, even above that of the Randy Couture and Chuck
Liddell trilogy.
When the announcement
was made that Matt Serra was forced to pull from his grudge match, it
appeared that the welterweight division was going to be on hold for another
few months. This would have been quite a disappointment considering the
depth of the division and the length of time we have been waiting for
a title defense due to TUF6.
My first thought was,
‘who is going to fight Matt Hughes?’ Then, I thought Matt
Hughes is not going to fight. Why should he? If he fought Jon Fitch, he
risks losing the fight and his title shot. Another thought was ‘who
is crazy enough to fight a game ready Matt Hughes in 5 weeks?’
Well, the man that
is that crazy enough is Georges St. Pierre. As UFC.com put it, the Canadian
that saved Christmas.
At the announcement
of this fight, I thought that this was not a good situation for GSP. How
could St. Pierre win this fight? Well let’s take a look.
GSP, since his loss
to Matt Serra, has strengthened the biggest (and maybe the only) hole
in his game, the mental hole. St. Pierre began seeing a sports psychologist
who taught GSP “…that in football and baseball, it's not always
the best team who won the game; it's the team who plays better."
Along with seeing this psychologist, GSP joined Greg Jackson’s camp
to add to his training with BTT Canada and the Olympic Wrestling Team.
What St. Pierre needs
to do to win is to keep this fight on the feet and inflict damage on Hughes.
GSP’s takedown defense is among the best not only in the welterweight
division, but in all of MMA. Hughes could not take him down in their second
fight, even Josh Koscheck, a former NCAA Division 1 wrestling champion,
had difficulty taking St. Pierre down.
After 2 or 3 rounds
of inflicting damage standing, GSP should look for the takedown and put
Hughes on his back. From here, St. Pierre can start throwing elbows and
delivering some brutal ground and pound looking for a TKO victory.
Matt Hughes, as well,
has made some changes since the second part of this trilogy. Hughes made
a big move by leaving Miletich Fighting Systems, starting his own gym
called H.I.T. Squad (Hughes Intensive Training), and starting his own
team called, be ready to be amazed, Team Hughes. Joining him in this venture
is his longtime corner man Marc Fiore and former MFS teammate Robbie Lawler.
About his new camp, Hughes has stated he is “getting a lot better
workouts than [he has] in the past.”
In order to win this
fight, Hughes needs to rely on what made him a champion. That is his wrestling
and strength. In their last fight, Hughes had spent quite a bit of time
training and improving his stand-up and decided to test that against GSP.
That did not turn out well for him. Matt Hughes needs to get this fight
to the ground and deliver some of his best GNP.
The question is, how
does Matt Hughes take St. Pierre down? I think that the only way Hughes
can pull a takedown off here is to muscle GSP against the fence, which
will not be easy because GSP is very strong and may be able to match strength
with Hughes, and use it as leverage to take him down. Once there, Hughes
will have quite a task of keeping St. Pierre down. He will need to use
his wrestling abilities to position himself and deliver as much GNP as
he can.
The real winner of
this fight is the fans. Dana White made an excellent decision to make
this for the interim title. Not because the winner deserves a title, but
because this opens this fight up to a 4th and 5th round. Both of these
fighters have something to prove here. GSP is trying to prove that he
is the best welterweight fighter in the world and that he is not the same
fighter that lost to Serra. Hughes is trying to prove that he is still
valid in this sport and he wants to avenge his loss to St. Pierre. The
only man that has 2 victories over Matt Hughes is Dennis Hallman.
The opening odds are
strongly in favor of St. Pierre, but I believe that as the fight nears
we will see the gap close.
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