UFC 76: Knockout- Fight & Betting Line Analysis
by Matt Corenzwit
BetOnFighting.Com Staff Writer

MMA Odds Maker Nick Kalikas and www.BetOnfighting.com have released this weekends Official UFC 76"Knockout" Odds.

This Saturday’s event rounds out one of the more active periods in UFC & mma’s history in a big way. Not only are we treated to the return of Chuck Liddell in his first fight since losing the title, but also the debut of the world’s #1 Light Heavyweight, Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. If that wasn’t enough, a potential #1 contender match takes place in the Welterweight division and two of the top young Lightweights will battle it out in a potential “fight of the year.” Absence of a title fight aside, this card is filled to the brim & the possibilities are endless. Let’s take a closer look at the fights!

MAIN CARD

Chuck Liddell (-340) Vs. Keith Jardine (+280)

Although this 205 lb. bout, selected to act as the Main Event, does not determine a new champion, it does promise to be a hell of an exciting fight. Both fighters are coming off of disappointing knockout losses and are desperate to get back on the winning track. Liddell is making his first appearance since he lost the coveted belt, but a win over Jardine puts him right into the title picture once again. Jardine, on the other hand, was at the top of the list for a shot at Liddell’s title, prior to succumbing to defeat at the upstart Houston Alexander’s hands.

Phrases such as, “This will be a stand-up war!” do not always come to fruition. This fight, however, promises to be just that. Each man’s forte is in the striking game, with slight differences. Jardine claims he is the more complete fighter, able to stand and trade, ground‘n’pound, etc. He may have a case, but the same can be said for many of Chuck’s opponents. Liddell is unique in that he doesn’t alter his training regimen or game plan. The “Ice Man” simply slugs it out and it’s virtually impossible to fight him in any other avenue. The fight will start and end on the feet.

In observing Keith Jardine’s fights, one thing is evident above all: He is extremely effective when coming forward. Conversely, Liddell is uncommonly adept whilst back pedaling& side stepping. This, unfortunately for Jardine, is a recipe for disaster. Unless he can somehow cause Chuck to over commit and leave himself open for a takedown, he will be walking directly into one of Liddell’s patented looping hooks. Expect Liddell to get back on the winning track via first or second round knockout. Jardine is a good fighter who creates lots of problems for the majority of his opponents, but I don’t think the value is there for him at +280.

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (-350) Vs. Forrest Griffin (+280)

Words cannot describe how excited I am to see Shogun come to the UFC. The Pride 2005 Grand Prix winner is a relentless attacker and is a fighter with as much versatility as anyone competing today. He is, however, not getting a cakewalk in his debut. Standing in his way is the ultra-popular TUF 1 LHW winner, Forrest Griffin. Forrest, as we all know, is a very large 205’er who loves to stand & bang. He’s also displayed some submission ability & the wherewithal to go three rounds without slowing down very much.

Forrest claims to have volunteered himself as Shogun’s first opponent. Humorously self deprecating though he may be, this is a new high for him. (Or should I say low?) No one questions his toughness or fighting spirit, but perhaps he has taken a few too many shots to the head than we realized. If he thinks he can defeat Rua by fighting tentatively as he did against Hector Ramirez, he is in for a very rude awakening.

Shogun’s style (and that of his camp, Chute Box) is best described as aggression personified. His gas tank is limitless and he pushes the pace and swarms his opponent like few before him. While best known for his highlight real KO's (generally via stomps/soccer kicks in Pride), his BJJ game is as good as anyone’s in the 205 lb. division. Unless for some reason he succumbs to UFC rookie jitters, which is doubtful, there is no way he can lose to Griffin. For two years, Shogun has been known as the king without a crown. Forrest is just the first step on his way to capturing UFC gold.

Jon Fitch (-120) Vs. Diego Sanchez (-110)

The Welterweight title picture will become much clearer in what will likely be the most competitive match of the night. Outstanding wrestler Jon Fitch, out of American Kickboxing Academy, takes on the proven & tenacious Diego Sanchez, the TUF1 MW champ. Each fighter has demonstrated the ability to finish fights as well as the endurance to go the full fifteen minutes. As is often the case with evenly matched opponents, it is unlikely for this fight to end prematurely.

Jon and Diego are each supremely conditioned, equally tough, and similarly aggressive. It can be argued, however, that Fitch is the superior wrestler, striker, and finisher. Diego, on the other hand, has faced slightly tougher competition & may be the better scrambler. Sanchez’s victories can each be attributed to a significant advantage over his adversaries, which is undeniably absent against Fitch. Wherever the fight goes, look for Fitch to control the action & dominate the positioning. One of my top two bets of the night, Jon Fitch will hand Diego his second straight loss.

Tyson Griffin (-165) Vs. Thiago Tavares (+135)

If any fight can top Fitch-Sanchez as the fight of the night, this is undoubtedly the one to do so. Tyson has already partaken in two of the more exciting fights in recent memory, against Frankie Edgar & Clay Guida. He is an incredibly strong and versatile lightweight with a stellar record in his young career. Tavares, on the other hand, is a top-of-the-food-chain Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner who is 13-0 overall & 2-0 in the UFC. Although he looked as impressive as ever in his last fight, a submission victory over Jason Black, Thiago Tavares is extremely unlikely to catch Tyson.

Griffin is a beast of a wrestler, which all but ensures that when the fight hits the mat, he will get and maintain dominant position. He also brings one of the more impressive ground’n’pound assaults to the table and can stand and trade with just about any 155 lb. fighter. The biggest factor in Tavares’ last victory was a conditioning problem from his opponent, who had tremendous difficulty making 155. Tyson, however, does not gas. An extremely strong & aggressive fighter who is able to avoid submissions with ease, Griffin is a phenomenal play.

Ryoto Machida (-240) Vs. Kazuhiro Nakamura (+190)

The casual UFC observer may not know much about these two stellar Light Heavyweights. Ryoto has flown under the radar in going 2-0 thus far in the UFC and has never lost a fight. He holds victories over such household names as Rich Franklin, BJ Penn, and a host of others. Nakamura is a Pride veteran from a judo background who has developed himself into a top-ten 205 lb. fighter. His development in MMA has been a joy to watch.

A baptism by fire, Kazuhiro started his career out by taking on Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and his competition never got any easier. Each of his 17 fights has come in the Pride ring, and he has only been defeated by the best of the best. There is little that Machida or anyone can do that will take Nakamura by surprise. With that in mind, he still has not fully developed his standup game to the point where he is a viable threat to top fighters. Machida is a very proficient striker with roots in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. There is little question that he needs to avoid the clinch and the ground to be successful against a Judoka as powerful as Nakamura. In a fight that will likely go the distance, I look for Machida to be able to stay on his feet and out-score “KazNak” in the stand-up. If for some reason the line on Nakamura is above +200, however, he is a very good value bet.

Under Card

Rich Clementi (even) Vs. Anthony Johnson (-130)

Kicking off the Lightweight-emphasized under card are two fighters who are looking to climb the 155 lb. ranks. Johnson comes in fresh off of his UFC debut, in which he brutally knocked out Chad Reiner. Clementi is best known for his role in TUF 5 and is a seasoned fighter with nearly 40 fights under his belt. Some people have zero difficulty jumping onto the bandwagon when a newcomer gets an impressive KO victory. I, however, am not so quick to praise such fighters when they have not been tested in all of the many areas of MMA. Clementi’s considerable experience and grappling/submission advantage make him a decent play at even money, and certainly if he comes out as the underdog.

Jeremy Stephens (-155) Vs. Diego Saraiva (+125)

Both Stephens & Saraiva are still looking for their first taste of victory in the UFC. With that in mind, expect the two to come out fast and with a sense of urgency. Saraiva’s superb BJJ game has been stifled in his first two UFC bouts, dropping decisions to Jorge Gurgel & Dustin Hazelett. Stephens definitely wants to keep the fight standing, with the majority of his wins coming by way of KO. I look for Saraiva to stay in Stephens’ face from the opening bell and get the fight to the ground, where he will finally get to showcase his skill-set. Diego Saraiva by submission, especially if given underdog odds, is my choice.

Matt Wiman (-325) Vs. Michihiro Omigawa (+265)

Although having lost during the TUF 4 quarterfinals to Manny Gamburyan, Matt Wiman is a skilled fighter with a very solid ground game. He bounced back during the TUF finale by stopping Brian Geraghty with ease via T.K.O. from the back mount. Outside of his loss to Spencer Fisher (against whom he fought very well in the first round), Matt has hung in there with every opponent he has faced, including Roger Huerta. His opponent, Omigawa, is a Judoka who’s been in the ring with the likes of JZ Calvancanti in Japan, but isn’t particularly adept at any facet of mma outside of the clinch. Look for Wiman to control both the standup & ensuing ground battle for another first round stoppage. Unless Wiman is -400 or higher, he should be a relatively safe investment.

Christian Wellisch (-175) Vs. Scott Junk (+145)

Stepping in to take the place of the injured Justin McCully this Saturday is Hawaiian Scott Junk. Junk is a beast of a man, barely under the 265 lb. heavyweight allowance, and possesses some very heavy hands. He’ll definitely look to end the fight quickly because his gas tank will be running on empty after a few minutes after taking the fight on short notice. Junk is opposed by Christian Wellisch of American Kickboxing Academy, a UFC veteran who transitions very quickly from submission to submission. Unless Junk catches Christian early, expect Wellisch to get his second straight UFC victory with little difficulty. Anything under -200 is worth a play.

--Please bet responsibly! Enjoy the Fights!
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